WSC 2004 Final Abstracts

Tuesday 10:30:00 AM 12:00:00 PM
Special Session: Assessing Terrorist Risk
Chair: Dave Pendergraft (Accenture)

Abstract:
The threat of terrorist attacks in the U.S. continues to pose a risk to the insurance industry. The first attack on the World Trade Center in 1993, the 1995 Oklahoma City Bombing, and the catastrophic events of September 11, 2001 all serve as reminders to the insurance markets that man-made catastrophe risk should be proactively underwritten and managed. As the terrorism landscape continues to evolve, the insurance industry is seeking to quantify, underwrite, manage, and transfer risk from this unfamiliar peril. The RMSŪ U.S. Terrorism Risk Model provides a comprehensive analysis of terrorism risk in the U.S., quantifying risk from both foreign and domestic terrorist organizations. It supports multi-line risk analysis for both certified and non-certified events causing property loss, business interruption, and workers compensation claims.

A Framework for Simulating Human Cognitive Behavior and Movement When Predicting Impacts of Catastrophic Events
Mary Court and Jennifer Pittman (University of Oklahoma), Christos Alexopoulos, David Goldsman, Seong-Hee Kim, Margaret L. Loper, and Amy R. Pritchett (Georgia Institute of Technology) and Jorge Haddock (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute)

Abstract:
Our nation has seen an increased need to train its civil authorities and emergency personnel under life-threatening scenarios where human life and critical infrastructure are assumed to be at risk. This training is typically obtained or re-enforced via (human) performance-based tests. At issue is the ability to accurately simulate the scenarios without exposing personnel or human test subjects to injury. In addition, these performance-based tests carry a large monetary cost, and certain scenarios are so complicated, catastrophic or rare that any performance-based test is unrealistic. Our paper outlines the research that must be conducted to develop a framework for modeling and analyzing risk-assessment and decision making when evacuat-ing large populations. The research is aimed at extending an existing construct for simulating passenger and crew behavior during aircraft evacuations, to larger populations, and relies upon rare-event simulation methods, parallel-and-distributed simulation and agent-based simulation.

Homeland Security Guest Address: Managing the Risk of Terrorism?
Gordan Woo (Risk Management Solutions (RMS))

Abstract:
As the U.S. Department of Homeland Security works to create an integrated emergency response system, it is evident that computer-based solutions can support this process. Individual commercial simulation packages and databases can provide a partial solution, but are not easily integrated to provide a comprehensive analysis of the events. To achieve model and domain knowledge integration, an analysis framework is developed to allow a broad range of simulation systems to share information, including inputs, models, and results. This analysis framework facilitates the combination of standalone scenarios into one master scenario where the overall chain-of-events can be analyzed and optimized. This paper describes a framework used in the simulation of an anthrax incident. The simulation modeled State, City, and Department of Health EOC processes executed under the Incident Command System (ICS). Hospital and distribution center models were integrated to add the effects and impact of the general population into the scenario.

The Hats Simulator
Paul R. Cohen and Clayton T. Morrison (USC Information Sciences Institute)

Abstract:
The Hats Simulator is designed to be a lightweight proxy for many intelligence analysis problems, and thus a test environment for analysts' tools. It is a virtual world in which many agents engage in individual and collective activities. Most agents are benign, some intend harm. Agent activities are planned by a generative planner. Playing against the simulator, the job of the analyst is to find harmful agents before they carry out their plans. The simulator maintains information about all agents. However, information is hidden from the analyst and some is expensive. After each game, the analyst is assessed a set of scores including the cost of acquiring information about agents, the cost of falsely accusing benign agents, and the cost of failing to detect harmful agents. The simulator is implemented and currently manages the activities of up to one hundred thousand agents.

Simulation Analysis of Virtual Geographic Routing
David M. Nicol (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign) and Michael E. Goldsby and Michael M. Johnson (Sandia National Laboratories)

Abstract:
Homeland defense applications will use large-scale ad-hoc networks of small devices. Routing is a crucial problem, for naive means do not scale well. Geographic Routing (GR) (Karp 2000; Giordano, Stojmenovic, and Blazevic 2003) offers hope for scalability, under the assumption that every device knows its geographic coordinates, e.g., through GPS. This solution is unsuitable though when there is no easy means of establishing a device's physical location. indoors. To address this limitation we propose {\em Virtual Geographic Routing} where we construct a virtual coordinate space and use GR within it. This paper describes VGR, compares the characteristics of paths VGR identifies with those that GR identifies, then presents theoretical and empirical evidence for its scalability.

Operational Analysis Framework for Emergency Operations Center Preparedness Training
Eytan Pollak (Lockheed Martin Simulation, Training and Solutions), Mark Falash (Lockheed Martin Simulation, Training and Support) and Lorie Ingraham and Vivian Gottesman (Lockheed Martin Simulation, Training and Solutions)

Abstract:
Border control is vital to the security of the nation and its citizens. In this study, we analyze the performance of a Border Company via simulation. Our main objective is to find more efficient ways of improving border control and security along the land borders of Turkey. To achieve this objective, we examine the structure of the border security system and its major components, understand the relationships between performance measures, and assess the effectiveness of each security elements on system performance measures. We also investigate system responses when some changes are implemented or new resources added, and evaluate alternative system designs. Key Words: Military Simulation, Border Security

A Template-Based Conceptual Modeling Infrastructure for Simulation of Physical Security Systems
Ashu Guru and Paul Savory (University of Nebraska - Lincoln)

Abstract:
Although simulation is one of the most innovative and cost-effective tools for modeling and analyzing a system, simulation studies often fail to provide any useful results. One reason is attributed to the fact that model formulation depends on the skills of the analyst. This paper describes a research to develop a conceptual modeling infrastructure to assist a simulation analyst in specifying components for studying physical security systems. The modeling framework has been programmed as an internet-based web application. Using the application, the successful develop-ment and implementation of a physical security simulation model will be aided by a defined scientific methodology rather than simply the skills of the analyst. Further the modeling framework is simulation language independent, thus allowing for a top-down or bottom-up approach to developing the conceptual model. This offers support for an object-oriented modeling design.

Simulation of an Airport Passenger Security System
David R. Pendergraft, Craig V. Robertson, and Shelly Shrader-Brawley (Accenture LLP)

Abstract:
As part of the new security environment at the nation’s airports, discrete event simulation modeling was applied shortly after 9-11 to understand the operational dynamics of passenger security screening in conjunction with the redesign of the passenger checkpoint. In a rapid six week effort, a discrete event simulation model was built to represent the passenger and luggage screening system at Baltimore Washington International Airport (BWI). BWI was the first airport to undergo enhancement, and the project was reported in “BWI’s Subtle But Serious Security,” Washington Post, March 4, 2002. After the value of simulation was demonstrated at BWI, the simulation methodology was applied to develop resource requirements at all Category X and I airports in the United States.

Simulation Modeling and Analysis of Border Security System
ihsan sabuncuoglu and gokhan celik (Bilkent University)