WSC'00
Final Program Abstracts
Military Applications Track

Information Superiority and Simulation Models
David Alberts (Department of Defense)

Abstract:
In recent years it has been increasingly important for simulation models to accurately reflect actual, planned, or proposed improvements in C4ISR performance. To date there has been limited success in incorporating C4ISR capabilities into existing models and building it into new models. The situation has been exacerbated by an ever increasing and urgent need to significantly increase the ability of simulation models not just to reflect C4ISR systems capabilities but to reflect information superiority concepts and related processes and impacts. This paper presents a conceptual framework for thinking about information superiority and discusses the nature of the metrics needed to measure it achievement and its impact. Simulation models, accompanied by appropriate analysis, will need to find ways to reflect these concepts and incorporate these metrics.

Modeling the Effects of Crew Size and Crew Fatigue on the Control of Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (TUAVs)
Brett Walters (Micro Analysis and Design, Inc.), Jon French (Micro Analysis and Design) and Michael J. Barnes (Army Research Lab)

Abstract:
The field element of the U.S. Army Research Lab (ARL) at Fort Huachuca, Arizona is concerned with the manning required to operate the close-range Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (TUAV). The operational requirements of the TUAV operators may include extended duty days, reduced crew size and varying shift schedules. These conditions are likely to reduce operator effectiveness due to fatigue. The objective of this study was to analyze how fatigue, crew size, and rotation schedule affect operator workload and performance during the control of a TUAV. The conclusions from executing the models indicate that reducing the number of operators currently recommended for the control of TUAVs results in 1) 33% more aerial vehicle (AV) mishaps during emergencies, 2) a 13% increase in the time it takes to search for targets, and 3) an 11% decrease in the number of targets detected. Over 400 mission scenario replications of the model were executed allowing statistically reliable predictions to be made of the effect of operator fatigue on performance. Discrete Event Simulation (DES) models may provide a cost effective means to estimate the impact of human limitations on military systems and highlight performance areas needing attention

Hierarchy-of-Models Approach for Aggregated-Force Attrition
James G. Taylor (Naval Postgraduate School), Ugur Ziya Yildirim (Turkish Military Academy (K.H.O.)) and William S. Murphy, Jr. (Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA))

Abstract:
This paper presents some innovations for overcoming shortcomings in the current state-of-the-art for the hierarchy-of-models approach to modeling aggregated-force attrition in ground-combat models. The basic concept of such an approach for modeling large-scale system behavior is presented, together with the theoretical underpinnings for modeling attrition in large-scale ground combat. The output of an entity-level discrete-event combat simulation is fit to a Lanchester-type aggregated-replay model. Use of a reliable statistical-estimation technique for determining model parameters is emphasized. The main innovation is to show how use of more detailed output data (e.g. line-of-sight (LOS) data) from the high-resolution simulation allows one to develop maximum-likelihood estimates. The methodology is applied to a current high-resolution DoD combat model, and a Lanchester-type aggregated-force replay model is developed.

An Underlying Model for Defeat Mechanisms
Brent Heeringa and Paul Cohen (University of Massachusetts at Amherst)

Abstract:
Defeat mechanisms are strategies for achieving victory over an opponent. Although defeat mechanisms often rely on influencing the opponent psychologically and emotionally, most simulations of warfare do not model these ``soft'' factors, they model only victory by attrition. To create more accurate, adaptable, and believable systems, we must be able to model a variety of defeat mechanisms. We propose a model where parameters and attributes that affect emotional and physical fatigue are combined to produce an overall measure of fatigue called effective fatigue. Effective fatigue, along with an agent's state, is combined by a defeat model to produce probabilities of surrender. We create warfare scenarios involving catastrophe and surprise, and then examine the model's behavior under these scenarios. We conclude with a discussion of how the model is related to our own Capture the Flag wargaming system.

Representing the C2 Process in Simulations: Modelling the Human Decision-Maker
Colin R. Mason (CORDA Ltd.), James Moffat (CDA(HLS) and DERA)

Abstract:
Military Command and Control (C2) is the process by which commanders organise and employ force elements in order to achieve military objectives. This process needs to be represented in models of conflict in order to simulate realistic force behaviour and effectiveness. Since C2 is heavily influenced by human decision-making, modelling the C2 process is recognized as one of the most challenging areas for defence analysis. This paper describes on-going research into ways in which the effects of C2 can be incorporated successfully into constructive simulation models of combat. The research has developed a representation of C2 based on an intelligent agent framework in which the C2 processes of a military operation are carried out by a number of interacting command agents, representing the various military headquarters. An agent software architecture has been designed and implemented, along with algorithms for key C2 processes, namely (1) data fusion and recognized picture compilation, (2) decision-making and planning at operational and tactical levels, (3) plan supervision and repair. These have been implemented within two software testbeds – MOSES, a simulation of Operations Other Than War (OOTW) and CLARION+, an extension of CLARION, the UK land-air combat simulation.

Anticipatory Planning Support System
John R Surdu (United States Military Academy) and John M.D. Hill and Udo W. Pooch (Texas A&M University)

Abstract:
A new approach to military planning and execution has been proposed. This approach seeks to merge planning and execution and replaces a methodology for building an automated system to support Anticipatory Planning. A Plan Description is developed to manage the many tree-like banches that occur in planning and execution of an operation. A Planning Executive can use the difference between the plan and the actual operation to control the activities of Planners and Execution Monitors in anticipating future branches to the plan. At the hear of the system are inference mechanisms for determining branches in the plan and simulations for predicting future states. This methodology enables the development of a prototype Anticipatory Planning Support system for evaluation of this new approach to military planning and execution. This paper concentrates on the activities of the Execution Monitors and thier use of simulation to support those activities.

Recursive Simulation to Aid Models of Decisionmaking
John B. Gilmer, Jr. and Frederick J. Sullivan (Wilkes University)

Abstract:
Recursive simulation involves a simulation, or an entity in the simulation, creating another instance of the same simulation, running it and using its results. This is particularly applicable to decisionmaking in a military simulation. Simulation can be used by the simulated command elements to evaluate the implications of the possible choices. The simulation that is already running provides a conveniently available evaluation tool if it can be run recursively. This has been done with the "eaglet" simulation, and data collected that indicates that the quality of decisionmaking by the simulated command elements is improved.

Component-Based Simulation Modeling
Arnold H. Buss (Naval Postgraduate School)

Abstract:
This paper presents a component-based framework for designing simulation models and discusses its implementation in a package called Simkit. In this framework, Components are defined to be monolith software entities that interact with other components in one of only three ways. Although seemingly restrictive, this approach supports more extensibility and customization of simulation models than conventional Object-Oriented design.

A Formation Behavior for Large-Scale Micro-Robot Force Deployment
Donald D. Dudenhoeffer (Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory) and Michael P. Jones (WhizBang! Labs)

Abstract:
M Micro-robots will soon be available for deployment by the thousands. Consequently, controlling and coordinating a force this large to accomplish a prescribed task is of great interest. This paper describes a flexible architecture for modeling thousands of autonomous agents simultaneously. The agents’ behavior is based on a subsumption architecture in which individual behaviors are prioritized with respect to all others. The primary behavior explored in this work is a group formation behavior based on social potential fields (Reif and Wang 1999). This paper extends the social potential field model by introducing a neutral zone within which other behaviors may exhibit themselves. Previous work with social potential fields has been restricted to models of “perfect” autonomous agents. The paper evaluates the effect of social potential fields in the presence of agent death (failure) and imperfect sensory input.

Simulation Methods for Analysis of Traffic Processes in ATM Networks
Kenneth Y. Jo (Defense Informaiton Systems Agency) and Christopher Munk (Booz, Allen & Hamilton Inc.)

Abstract:
This paper presents efficient simulation methods for analyzing modern, large-scale networks and evaluating their performance attributes. Characterizing traffic flows from multiple sources and applications is key in assessing overall network performance measures. It is essential to have quantitative network cost and performance measures in order to plan, design, and implement modern, large-scale networks such as the Advanced Distributed Learning Network (ADLN). ADLN requires integrated, multimedia network services for distributed, collaborative processing among globally dispersed users. ADLN will inter-connect multiple categories of users and provide integrated voice, video, and data services, which will be enabled through the use of Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) technology. Through efficient multi-plexing and networking, ATM can interconnect multiple classes of users and transport ADLN applications cost-effectively with guaranteed performance. A combined approach of simulation and analysis is used to assess the performance of the large-scale, distributed network such as ADLN. Topics include the multi-source traffic characterization, performance analysis of ATM networks, capacity sizing, and optimal allocation of network resources.

Developing Tactics Using Low Cost, Accessible Simulations
Iain H. McKenna and Stephen Little (Maritime Warfare Centre)

Abstract:
The Royal Navy's Maritime Warfare Centre (MWC) is responsible to the UK Commander-in-Chief Fleet (CinCFleet) and was formed with the purpose of developing operational tactics and procedures to optimise the capability of the Fleet’s platforms, sensors and weapon systems. Evaluating tactics at sea requires a considerable amount of forward planning and ties up valuable and expensive assets. It is therefore important that the candidate tactics must be developed to a sufficient level of maturity on-shore. This is done through a combination of individual brainpower, paper studies and computer simulation. The computer simulation must be inexpensive, totally flexible, sufficiently accurate, reliable and above all easily available to, and usable by, the individual tactical desk officers. Any simulations developed need to be easily adaptable. Tactical Development is not a formally structured process; software development is not easy when there are no formal requirements. The MWC have investigated using the Spreadsheet Excel to form the basis of such simulations. This paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of this approach, in creating simulations that can be used for developing tactics that have the necessary degree of flexibility, integrity and usability. A specific example of an application to a particular problem will be illustrated.

Long Range Artillery Simulation Using Component Based Development Techniques and the High Level Architecture
Simon A. Colby (CORDA Ltd) and D. Lee Beetham (BAE SYSTEMS RO Defence)

Abstract:
his paper describes the use and development of an artillery synthetic environment. This SE will be used to support system concept development and validation for long range and smart munitions. It will also be used for the development of operational concepts for these weapons including an investigation of ISTAR requirements. The SE is a force level analysis tool, representing artillery batteries and company level entities. It is capable of running with a human in the loop or in a closed Monte Carlo mode. The SE has been built using a component based development approach. The HLA FOM/SOM mechanism is used to describe the interfaces between the component simulations. Each component simulation (federate) represent a different functional areas -- such as sensing, combat, and command and control. The component approach has allowed the development team to manage the level of complexity within each federate. This has resulted in a very rapid development cycle and a very flexible and extensible end product.

Predicting Enemy Force Closure with Simulation
Mark R. Grabau (Protean Consulting Inc) and Michael D. Payne (Air Force Studies and Analyses Agency)

Abstract:
This paper presents a model and an analysis done to predict enemy force closure. The simulation replaces a pencil and ruler method that has been used by Department of Defense planners for over a century. More importantly, the model provides planners with the capability to assess previously "impossible to quantify," yet critical, factors: transportation network constraints, equipment reliability and maintainability, varying task times, night-time operations, and the effects of air interdiction. War planning implications are discussed and notional results are presented.

Development of a Fast All-Seasons Model for the State of the Ground
Mary Albert, George Koenig, and George Mason (U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center)

Abstract:
For predicting soil conditions in support of mobility, combat, or engineering simulations, it is important to have verified models that can reliably predict the state of the ground in all weather conditions. While variations in the state of the ground in summer are due primarily to soil type, vegetation, and slope, the winter and spring seasons present additional challenges that are currently not addressed by most Army models. Because depth of snow on the ground varies greatly through the winter, a prediction capability is needed for the rate of snow accumulation and melt that will allow predictions of snow depth. Ground freezing/thawing or the presence of mud can significantly change soil strength, requiring a prediction capability for soil moisture and freeze/thaw. This paper describes progress in the development of FASST, the Fast All-Seasons Soil STate model. FASST is a physically-based model currently under development to predict the state of the ground using minimal computational time and resources. FASST predicts soil moisture, snow depth, frost depth, snow pack melt outflow, soil temperature, and soil strength on an hourly basis. The physical basis of the model is presented and preliminary model predictions are compared to measured field data.

Integrating Cold Weather Impacts on Human Performance into Army M&S Applications
Gary Phetteplace (US Army Engineer Research and Development Center)

Abstract:
Exposure to cold weather has deleterious effects on the performance of soldiers. Gross and fine motor skills as well as cognitive ability are all diminished by exposure to low ambient temperatures. Clothing and equipment that protect the solider from cold also encumber the soldier’s movement and dexterity. Therefore, while the solider is protected from the cold, his or her performance is reduced in terms of both time to perform a given task and accuracy. Food and water consumption are also greatly increased by exposure to the cold. For Army simulations to accurately represent missions that occur in cold weather, these impacts must be accounted for, yet they seldom have been. This paper will briefly review the physiological mechanisms for degraded performance in the cold. A sample of the data available in the literature on cold weather impacts on humans will also be presented. Finally we suggest how these impacts might be incorporated in military models and simulations.

Tire Model for Simulations of Vehicle Motion on High and Low Friction Road Surfaces
James Lacombe (U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center )

Abstract:
An on-road analytical tire model has been developed to predict tire forces and moments at the tire/road interface. The model is computationally efficient and it only requires a limited set of easily obtained input parameters. Force and moment calculations are based on mechanical analogs that describe longitudinal and lateral tire tread and sidewall deflections during braking, traction and cornering. Longitudinal deflections are determined using a simple linear elastic spring model, while lateral deflections are calculated using an elastic beam model. Surface sliding friction is defined by experimental curves relating the friction coefficient to the wheel/road differential velocity. Source code has been developed to include the model as a force element subroutine in commercially available dynamic analysis software known as DADS (Dynamic Analysis Design System). The tire model has been successfully demonstrated in DADS using a simple simulation of a tire test device. Preliminary comparisons of model predictions with available test data have been favorable. Efforts are underway to incorporate the tire subroutine into a DADS model of a HMMWV to conduct driving simulations on dry, snow and ice covered road surfaces.

A Simulation Approach to Estimating Aircraft Mission Capable Rates for the United States Air Force
Harold S. Balaban (Institute for Defense Analyses), Robert T. Brigantic (HQ Air Mobility Command ) and Samuel A. Wright and Anthony F. Papatyi (HQ Air Mobility Command)

Abstract:
This paper presents the results of a simulation model designed to estimate aircraft Mission Capable Rates (MCR) for the United States Air Force. This simulation model originated out of the need to estimate the MCR for different modernization schemes to be implemented on the Air Force C-5 Galaxy aircraft. Assigned to the Air Mobility Command (AMC), the C-5 is one of our nation’s only two strategic airlift aircraft that can carry large outsize cargo (e.g., helicopters and tanks). The other outsize capable strategic airlift aircraft is the C-17 Globemaster III. At the same time, the C-5 is one of the Air Force’s least reliable aircraft. This means that AMC has a deficiency in meeting all of its wartime cargo airlift missions. To address this problem, AMC embarked on a year-long Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) study in 1999 to determine the best value solution for the Air Force to meet its cargo airlift requirements. Integral to this analysis is the aforementioned simulation model used to estimate C-5 MCR. This paper reviews the different alternatives examined in the AoA and presents the details of the simulation effort to estimate the MCR for these different options.

High Resolution Satellite Communication Simulation
Brandee L. Murphy (SPAWAR Space Field Activity)

Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to develop and demonstrate Simulation of Satellite Communications (SIMSATCOM), a high resolution, stochastic simulation of satellite communications for evaluating the effectiveness of message transmission and receipt by specified senders and receivers. SIMSATCOM is designed to operate as a stand-alone simulation, but may be adopted as a high resolution module for a large scale simulation such as JWARS.

Simulation in a Box (A Generic Reusable Maintenance Model)
Nancy Brown and Steve Powers (Kelly Logistics Support Systems, Incorporated)

Abstract:
Simulation models can be time-consuming to build and often multiple models are built to simulate similar systems that have small differences. While developing a model to evaluate the impact of maintenance functions on the day-to-day operations of an Air Force Wing, thought was given to how the same concepts could be applied to other military and commercial maintenance operations. This simulation was designed specifically to support a model of Air Force Wing operations and the maintenance functions associated with them. The secondary objective was to ensure the simulation could evolve into a generic model with applications across the military and in the commercial world. This paper discusses considerations and challenges in designing and moving to a generic model. The current version of the model from the user’s and modeler’s view is also presented.

DoD Initiatives in Distributed Simulation Technology: A Panel Discussion
Philip Barry and Philomena Zimmerman (Defense Modeling and Simulation Office), Jim Metzger (Joint Warfare Simulation (JWARS)), Fred Hartman (Joint Simulation Systems (JSIMS)), Cindy Porubcansky (Joint Modeling And Simulation System Program Office) and Joseph S. Stewart, II (The MITRE Corporation)

Abstract:
ABSTRACT Panelists respond to three questions, " How does your DoD initiative promise to increase readiness for the fighting forces?", "Where will the distributed simulation technology in your program take us by 2005?" and "What changes in available DoD infrastructure would facilitate the use of the system(s) emerging from your program?" The panelists include senior members of the Department of Defense civilian management team working in the Modeling and Simulation field.

Simulation-Based Acquisition: An Impetus for Change
Wayne J. Davis (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

Abstract:
The military has recently introduced simulation-based acquisition where simulation technologies would be applied throughout all phases of system design, development, production and deployment. Originally, a four-phase approach was defined to reflect the sequential steps occurring from the initial conceptualization of the system to its eventual deployment. In this paper, the acquisition process is redefined as a collection of concurrent functions that may be iteratively implemented throughout the acquisition process. Potential applications for simulation in this enhanced acquisition process are discussed. In addition, the need for further simulation development is conveyed.

A Readiness Analysis for the Argentine Air Force and the Brazilian Navy A-4 Fleet Via Consolidated Logistics Support
Marcelo B. Rodrigues (LCDR, Brazilian Navy), Mario Karpowicz (Argentine Air Force) and Keebom Kang (Naval Postgraduate School)

Abstract:
The Argentine Air Force and the Brazilian Navy recently added the Douglas A-4 Skyhawk aircraft to their military services. Each country maintains its own limited repair facility and spare parts inventory. Major repair work (depot-level maintenance) must be sent to the manufacturers in the United States, and the long repair cycle times adversely affect military readiness. It is critical to implement an effective spare parts management system to compensate for such long repair cycle times. We developed a simulation model to study the impact of consolidating aviation component spare parts inventory management and reducing transportation cycle times. Our results indicate that both countries will greatly benefit if they collaborate on the inventory management of their A-4 fleet maintenance. Their benefits will be significantly increased if they change the sea transportation mode to air transportation for transporting avionic components back and forth to the United States for repair.

United States Marine Corps Aerial Refueling Requirements Analysis
William R. Gates (Naval Postgraduate School) and Mitchell J. McCarthy (United States Marine Corps)

Abstract:
The United States Marine Corps (USMC) currently operates a fleet of KC130 aerial refueling tanker aircraft. This paper uses queuing and simulation models to examine the USMC KC130 tanker requirement, contrasts the results and explores the budgetary implications of alternative fleet requirements. This analysis finds that queuing models don't account for some of the complexities of aerial refueling operations. Therefore, queuing models may miscalculate the KC130 requirement. Simulation models give a more accurate depiction of actual KC130 requirement. Further, by incorrectly specifying the requirement the USMC could be faced with significant operational and budgetary implications.