WSC 2001 Final Abstracts

Military Applications Track

Monday 10:30:00 AM 12:00:00 PM
Military Keynote Address

Chair: Arnold Buss (Naval Postgraduate School)

Monday 1:30:00 PM 3:00:00 PM
New Approaches to Combat Simulation

Chair: David Durda (TRAC-WSMR)

The Rapid Modelling System: A Component Based Approach to the Simulation of Tactics
Phillip Martin (CORDA)

A component based approach to the simulation and development of tactics or procedures was presented at WSC’99. This paper provides an update to the approach, describing the substantial progress made in developing a modelling tool set called the Rapid Modelling System (RMS) to take advantage of the original concept. The paper describes the problems encountered during the development and the methods employed to overcome them, whilst keeping to the overall aim of providing a generic structure to the RMS. The current functionality is described including the ability to use propagation data and target strength values for sensor performance. An illustrative example of a tactical set of procedures is described and a worked example is provided showing how the RMS allows variations to be made in a controlled and repeatable manner. The RMS is written in EXTEND TM (Imagine That Inc).

Dimensionality Analysis of a Simulation Outcome Space
John B. Gilmer, Jr. and Frederick J. Sullivan (Wilkes University)

This paper investigates the dimensionality characteristics of the outcome space of a combat simulation. The independent state variables of all of the outcome states for a simulation run for given event management policies were analyzed using techniques based on Principal Component Analysis and Singular Value Decomposition, to give metrics for dimensionality. The number of dimensions in the outcome space is indicative of variety of possible outcomes, a property potentially important in hierarchical simulation. Events were managed using random choices, multitrajectory methods designed to give greater preference to high probability trajectories, and by various methods guided by analysis of the impact of the various events. The number of dimensions could not be increased greatly by the event management techniques used for selecting event outcomes for multitrajectory resolution. Beyond 1000 replication runs, the size of the state space did not even strongly influence the metrics.

Monday 3:30:00 PM 5:00:00 PM
Simulation in Support of Military Operations, Tactics, and Planning

Chair: Mike Frost (CORDA, Ltd)

ODIN – An Underwater Warfare Simulation Environment
Terence Robinson (QinetiQ)

This paper describes the capability, design and application of the generic underwater warfare simulation environment ODIN. The model was developed by QinetiQ, previously DERA (Defence Evaluation and Research Agency), to model the detailed underwater interaction between surface ship/submarine/UUV (Unmanned Underwater Vehicle) platforms, torpedoes and countermeasures. It was originally developed out of a need to model the effectiveness of advanced countermeasure concepts and uses innovative techniques to model multi-static signal acoustics. The environment provides a ‘whole system’ integrated approach to modelling using multiple levels of fidelity to support a wide range of applications, from high-level Monte Carlo assessment to algorithmic design and evaluation.

Planning Aids for the Military Commander: Force Protection Simulation Opportunities with GIS
Alan Cowdale and Suzy Lithgo (Air Warfare Centre)

This paper describes the development of computer simulation models by the Operational Analysis Element of the Air Warfare Centre to support Force Protection planning within the Royal Air Force. The paper illustrates both the application of rapid system development methodology to meet a military requirement, and provides a case study into how a model can develop using the Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) Inc ArcView modelling suite to meet the user requirement.

A Simulation of the Mission Crew Workload in a Multi Mission Aircraft
Phillip Martin, Christopher Watson, and Andy Skinner (CORDA)

The increased tasking and reduced manning of a multi mission aircraft put pressures on the mission-crew in terms of their workload, mixture of skill and the training required. This paper describes the simulation undertake by CORDA for the UK Air Warfare Centre. Within the model, written in EXTEND TM (Imagine That Inc.), the mission is defined in a modular form, which allows the mission tasks to be developed and modified as the study progressed. Workloads are associated with each task which are then distributed amongst the mission-crew. Within the model supervisory roles, relief crew and rest periods are modelled. The design has provided a generic simulation approach to mission-crew loading which allows the analyst to study variations and sensitivities in a controlled manner. This allows the optimum capability to be assessed and the minimum training / manning burden to be associated with the introduction of new aircraft technologies and skills.

Tuesday 8:30:00 AM 10:00:00 AM

Chair: Jim Metzger (JWARS Office)

The Joint Warfare System (JWARS): A Modeling and Analysis Tool for the Defense Department
George Stone, III (Office of the Secretary of Defense) and Gregory A. McIntyre (Offfice of the Secretary of Defense)

Joint Warfare System (JWARS) is a campaign-level model of military operations. Users will include the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), the Joint Staff, the Services, and the US Warfighting Commands. Program requirements documents specify implementation that fosters insight into cause and effect relationships encountered by military forces. JWARS will support multi-billion dollar resource allocation decisions and critical operational planning. As a closed-form analytic simulation, JWARS will provide "balanced" representation of joint (modern) warfare. The simulation is mixed-mode, with models that are stochastic or deterministic. The JWARS program will include explicit representation of effects and perturbations caused by information operations on command and control systems in military operations. Relying on state-of-the-art uncertainty modeling concepts, JWARS engineers and domain experts have developed high-level abstractions of sensor and communications systems, the related information flows, imperfect perception of the battlespace, and command decision making.

Commander Behavior and Course of Action Selection in JWARS
Deborah Vakas, John Prince, and H. Ric Blacksten (CACI International) and Chuck Burdick (Lockheed Martin Corp)

The Joint Warfare System (JWARS) is being equipped with a Commander Model (CM) to perform situation assessment and Course of Action (COA) selection, and a Commander Behavior Model (CBM) to bias decisions with a commander's leadership style. The CM is a hybrid artificial intelligence system that models doctrine through the use of fuzzy rule sets, together with a tree-based lookahead algorithm for the strategy. The CBM employs behavior-based fuzzy rule sets to augment the CM in assessing the situation, and in biasing the COA selection criteria. Extending from Myers-Briggs personality traits, the CBM links personality traits to military attitudes, consequences and values. Employing the fuzzy rule sets, the resulting sets of values are combined to select a specific COA with an auditable trail. Users will have the ability to modify both the input parameters and the underlying rules. The CM/CBM is applicable to decisions at multiple echelons.

JWARS Output Analysis
H. Ric Blacksten and James W. Jones (CACI International Inc.), Michael L. Poumade (GRCI Inc), Haywood S. Osborne (GRCI International) and George F. Stone (US Army)

The Joint Warfare System (JWARS) is being equipped with a growing set of tools for microanalysis of single replications and for macro-analysis across multiple replications. These include tools embedded in the JWARS HCI (human-computer interface) to provide graphical and textual reports for immediate review, tools to capture campaign results data in a database for later analysis, and post-processing tools for processing such data into reports to support the decision maker.

Tuesday 10:30:00 AM 12:00:00 PM
Urban and Agent-Based Simulation

Chair: James Illingworth (TRAC-MTRY)

Representation of Urban Operations in Military Models and Simulations
Scott T. Crino (TRADOC Analysis Center)

The US Military’s involvement in urban operations has escalated significantly over the past several years. Though modeling and simulation (M&S) has played a large role in the development and refinement of Army tactics, techniques and procedures, current model research for military operations in urban terrain (MOUT) is fragmented and inadequately resourced. Core physical models are judged to be insufficient as a foundation for simulation of urban operations. To combat our deficiencies, the Army Modeling and Simulation Office (AMSO) has formed a Focus Area Collaborative (FAC) Team. The Urban Operations FAC Team will direct all future urban operations modeling efforts, ensuring new simulations credibly depict military operations in urban terrain. Coordinated, coherent Army research for urban M&S will reside in three main areas: Physical models, Terrain and Behaviors. The overall purpose of the FAC Team is to ensure a coherent plan of research for urban M&S is formulated, documented and published.

An Agent Architecture for Implementing Command and Control in Military Simulations
Colin R. Mason (CORDA Ltd.) and James Moffat (Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL))

In models of military operations it is important to include the Command and Control (C2) process in order to achieve a realistic simulation of a military force’s behaviour and effectiveness. Inspired by ideas from complexity theory we have developed a representation of C2 based on a decentralised system of interacting intelligent “command agents”. In this paper we describe the architecture of our command agents and how this captures the key C2 processes that exist in military headquarters, particularly the G2 and G3 processes of recognised picture compilation, decision making and planning. We describe a reusable software framework that we have developed, within which we implement the command agents. The architecture and its software implementation enable us to produce command agents that can simulate C2 at any level in the military command hierarchy and in operations across the warfare spectrum - from high intensity combat to Operations Other Than War (OOTW).

Modeling and Simulation for Exploring Human-Robot Team Interaction Requirements
Donald D. Dudenhoeffer, David J. Bruemmer, and Midge L. Davis (Idaho National Engineering & Environmental Laboratory)

Small-sized and micro-robots will soon be available for deployment in large-scale forces. Consequently, the ability of a human operator to coordinate and interact with large-scale robotic forces is of great interest. This paper describes the ways in which modeling and simulation have been used to explore new possibilities for human-robot interaction. The paper also discusses how these explorations have fed implementation of a unified set of command and control concepts for robotic force deployment. Modeling and simulation can play a major role in fielding robot teams in actual missions. While live testing is preferred, limitations in terms of technology, cost, and time often prohibit extensive experimentation with physical multi-robot systems. Simulation provides insight, focuses efforts, eliminates large areas of the possible solution space, and increases the quality of actual testing.

Tuesday 1:30:00 PM 3:00:00 PM
Simulation of Logistics

Chair: Eugene Paulo (TRAC-Monterey)

Effectiveness of Naval Surface Fire Support to the Army Brigade Commander in a Littoral Campaign
Juan K. Ulloa (TRADOC Analysis Center, Ft Leavenworth) and Eugene P. Paulo (TRAC-Monterey)

Since the end of the Cold War, the Army has engaged in an unprecedented number of joint contingency operations hinting at future missions aimed at protecting U.S. interests worldwide. To engage and defeat future threats to our national security, the Army must transform itself into a more strategically responsive, lethal force. This paper analyzes the effectiveness of Naval Surface Fire Support (NSFS), which can help lighten the force by providing support for brigade-sized units. The Fire Support Simulation Tool (FSST) simulates the employment of various indirect fire courses of action (COA’s) for analysis. Comparing the utility of several well-constructed COA’s using the FSST’s output can help decision-makers determine the effectiveness of NSFS for specific campaigns. The results of this analysis conclude that there is strong quantitative and analytical evidence to support the effectiveness of NSFS to an Army Brigade commander engaged in a littoral campaign.

T.LoaDS Abbreviated Systems Architecture
Bob Hamber (Naval Facilities Engineering Service Center)

The Tactical Logistics Distribution System (T.LoaDS or TLoaDS)is a powerful and flexible simulation application for assessing current or future tactical or sea-based distribution systems. In its current state of development, it is an analytical model for assessing the pros and cons of new doctrine, distribution techniques, organizational structures, and equipment concepts. It can also be used to find out how to best use available resources to sustain a military force in a wide variety of scenarios. The "System" in TLoaDS refers to its modular architecture and that it is more that just a simulation. It is a suite of analytical study tools. This paper introduces TLoaDS features by an examination of its current software module architecture. It also covers a few of the modules under development to expand TLoaDS scope, depth and range of use, and further improve its ease of use.

Case Study in Modeling and Simulation Validation Methodology
Scott D. Simpkins (US Army Recruiting Command), Eugene P. Paulo (TRAC-Monterey) and Lyn R. Whitaker (Naval Postgraduate School)

The military develops simulations to analyze nearly every aspect of defense. How accurate are these simulations and to what extent do they produce dependable results? Most guidance available to DoD analysts provides broad recommendations geared towards management and coordination of the validation processes. Here, we focus on practical validation from the analyst’s perspective in the form of a case study. The platform used is the theater missile defense (TMD) aspects of Extended Air Defense Simulation (EADSIM) and a new simulation called Wargame 2000. The focus is not to validate Wargame 2000 but to develop real, usable tools for analysis. Measures of effectiveness include defense battery search, engagement and intercept times against threat missiles are examined. Insight is provided into developmental and data production issues making the validation process more effective and meaningful.

Tuesday 3:30:00 PM 5:00:00 PM
Simulation-Based Acquisition

Chair: Ernie Page (MITRE)

Architectural Principles for the U.S. Army's Simulation and Modeling for Acquisition, Requirements and Training (SMART) Initiative
Ernest H. Page (The MITRE Corporation) and Wendell H. Lunceford (U.S. Army Model and Simulation Office)

A collection of architectural principles is developed that support Army's Simulation and Modeling for Acquisition, Requirements and Training (SMART) initiative.

Usage Testing of Military Simulation Systems
Gwendolyn H. Walton and Robert M. Patton (University of Central Florida) and Douglas J. Parsons (US Army STRICOM)

Scalability and input domain explosion make it impossible to exhaustively test simulation systems. Improved methods such as statistical usage testing are needed to provide quantitative support for test planning and test management. This paper describes the challenges and the state of the practice of testing simulation systems. A brief introduction to statistical usage testing is provided. An approach to developing an abstract usage model structure appropriate for testing military simulation systems is suggested and illustrated. This approach supports the creation and analysis of test scenarios that are flexible enough to handle a wide range of uses in military simulations.

Wednesday 8:30:00 AM 10:00:00 AM
Simulation Analysis

Chair: Raymond Hill (AFIT)

Applications of Discrete Event Simulation Modeling to Military Problems
Raymond R. Hill and J. O. Miller (AFIT) and Gregory A. McIntyre (JWARS)

The military is a big user of discrete event simulation models. The use of these models range from training and wargaming their constructive use in important military analyses. In this paper we discuss the uses of military simulation, the issues associated with military simulation to include categorizations of various types of military simulation. We then discuss three particular simulation studies undertaken with the Air Force Institute of Technology’s Department of Operational Science focused on important Air Force and Army issues.

Generic Models in the Advanced IRCM Assessment Model
David P. Forrai (JE Sverdrup) and James J. Maier (AFRL/IFEB)

The Advanced IRCM Assessment Model (AIRSAM) simulates an infrared (IR) guided missile engaging an aircraft equipped with infrared countermeasures (IRCM). Analysts currently use AIRSAM to predict the most likely IRCM response by an aircraft when engaged. The analyst often attempts to determine responses using IRCM or threat systems that are not characterized in detail. For AIRSAM to be an effective simulation for this purpose, the models for IRCMs and threat systems must allow the user to adjust operational parameters to match the IRCMs or threat systems of interest. Much of our work over the past nine years has involved developing generic models with associated configuration tools to provide the user with this flexibility. This paper will highlight some of those generic models.

Study of an Ergodicity Pitfall in Multitrajectory Simulation
John B. Gilmer, Jr. and Frederick J. Sullivan (Wilkes University)

Multitrajectory Simulation allows random events in a simulation to generate multiple trajectories. Management techniques have been developed to manage the choices of trajectories to be continued as combinatorial explosion and limited resources prevents continuing all of them. One of the seemingly most promising methods used trajectory probability as a criterion, so that higher probability trajectories were preferentially continued, resulting in a more even distribution of (surviving) trajectory probabilities, and better than stochastic approximation to a reference outcome. It was also found that this management technique introduced a failed ergodicity assumption. The higher and lower probability trajectories behave differently to a significant extent. The effect is to limit the number of trajectories which can usefully be applied to the problem, such that additional runs would fail to converge further toward the definitive reference outcome set. This may be a useful model for understanding other simulation modeling limitations.

Wednesday 10:30:00 AM 12:00:00 PM
Economics and Security Issues in Simulation

Chair: Paul Sanchez (Naval Postgraduate School)

Modes of Simulation Practice in Business and the Military
Stewart Robinson (Warwick Business School)

Modelling human interaction and decision-making within a simulation presents a particular challenge. This paper describes a methodology that is being developed known as 'knowledge based improvement'. The purpose of this methodology is to elicit decision-making strategies via a simulation model and to represent them using artificial intelligence techniques. Further to this, having identified an individual's decision-making strategy, the methodology aims to look for improvements in decision-making. The methodology is being tested on unplanned maintenance operations at a Ford engine assembly plant.

The Economic Effects of Reusability on Distributed Simulations
Mary Ewing (University of Alabama in Huntsville)

This paper examines whether the ability to reuse a simulation, in whole or in part, results in tangible cost savings on the overall economics of the original simulation. Specific target simulations are those created for the US Army using the mandated High Level Architecture framework for reusability. A hypothetical model was developed to determine if a simulation created for the High Level Architecture could produce quantitative cost savings due to its reusability while keeping other cost parameters constant. It was discovered that actual cost data and percentages of reusability for existing Army simulations were difficult to assess. Further, it was discovered that the economics of reusability had never been addressed from a consistent viewpoint. From a purely hypothetical, economic standpoint, reusability proves itself to be a strong economic argument for the use of the High Level Architecture framework or some similar architecture.

Security Issues in High Level Architecture Based Distributed Simulation
Asa Elkins (Integrated Data Systems), Jeffery W. Wilson (Department of the Navy) and Denis Gracanin (Virginia Tech)

The United States Department of Defense (DoD) has, over the past several years, emphasized the need to employ simulation based acquisition (SBA) in engineering and development. Distributed simulation introduces an information assurance challenge and details of a simulation must be guarded from unauthorized access. The High Level Architecture (HLA) and its Run-Time Interface (RTI) do not define support of mandatory access controls (MACs) or discretionary access controls (DACs) required to provide necessary protection levels. We review of some current MLS approaches for HLA/RTI simulations to illustrate the deficient Multi-Level Secure (MLS) components in HLA and present options for a secure HLA interface built at the network layer. An initial implementation of a proposed solution is presented. We discuss experimental results, limitations of our implementation and future research directions.

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