WSC 2002

WSC 2002 Final Abstracts

Military Applications Track

Monday 1:30:00 PM 3:00:00 PM
Military Keynote

Chair: Mark Grabau (Accenture)

Military-Based Virtual Systems Engineering
Kenneth Mark Bryden (Iowa State University)

This paper discusses how the military can and should move into the world of virtual systems engineering. In the past engineering designs were first done on paper, reviewed using scale models, and finalized in the full scale products. In the future all aspects of product design, manufacture, and repair will be done in virtual space. The ability to make changes "on-the-fly" and without "cutting metal" can save money and time, and will result in better designs. On-line collaboration, rapid access to a broad range of tools and experts, and realization of the results into a format that can be quickly and easily understood will enable a decision maker to more fully understand the implications of a particular decision. These tools have broad application in both industrial and military decision making.

Monday 3:30:00 PM 5:00:00 PM
Campaign Analysis

Chair: James W. Harris (Air Force Studies and Analyses Agency)

Representation of Historical Events in a Military Campaign Simulation Model
John Herington and Andrew Lane (Defence Science and Technology Laboratory) and N. Corrigan and J. A. Golightly (CORDA Ltd.)

DSTL has sponsored the development and use of several campaign level models of military operations. The models are required to provide insight into force assessment, procurement decisions of future concepts and for investigations into potential doctrinal developments. COMAND is a theatre level stochastic representation of the naval-air (maritime) campaign which runs on a desktop PC under Windows NT. COMAND also contains a simple representation of the joint force influence on the land campaign. As part of the process to establish the validation status of COMAND, an attempt was made to replicate the 1982 Falkland Islands Campaign. This attempt was largely successful, and provided much information on the strengths and weaknesses of the model.

The Sortie Generation Rate Model
James W. Harris, Jr. (Air Force Studies and Analyses Agency)

This paper presents a sortie generation rate (SGR) model and describes how to use it as a commander’s tool. The SGR model was initially developed to generate War Mobilization Plan Volume 5 (WMP-5) sortie rates, but proved to be an expedient commander’s tool for planning options. Previously, developing sortie rates required three models, Regional Conflict Model (RCM), Logistics Composite Model (LCOM), and ACC Flyer. Each model required its own input data and they were located in different agencies of the Air Force. The RCM model is no longer supported, LCOM requires large amounts of input data, and ACC Flyer uses output of LCOM as part of its input. The SGR model requires little data and it is a one step process, which runs on a laptop computer. The SGR model uses constraints and events to capture the sortie rate process from a macro level without significantly detailed input.

Tuesday 8:30:00 AM 10:00:00 AM
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Chair: William Murphy (IITRI)

MultiUAV: A Multiple UAV Simulation for Investigation of Cooperative Control
S. J. Rasmussen (Veridian) and P. R. Chandler (AFRL/VACA)

This paper describes MultiUAV, a simulation that is capable of simulating multiple unmanned aerospace vehicles which cooperate to accomplish a predefined mission. The simulation was constructed using the Mathwork’s Simulink simulation software. Construction of the simulation satisfied the need for a simulation environment that researchers can use to implement and analyze cooperative control algorithms. The simulation is implemented in a hierarchical manner with intervehicle communication explicitly modeled. During construction of MultiUAV, issues concerning memory usage and functional encapsulation were addressed. MultiUAV includes plotting tools and links to an external program for post-simulation analysis. Each of the vehicle simulations include six-degree-of-freedom dynamics and embedded flight software. The embedded flight software consists of a collection of managers (agents) that control situational awareness and responses of the vehicles. Managers included in the simulation are: Tactical Maneuvering, Sensor, Target, Cooperation, Route and Weapons.

Modeling Considerations for Wide Area Search Munition Effectiveness Analysis
David R. Jacques (Air Force Institute of Technology)

There are currently several wide area search munitions in the research and development phase within the Department of Defense. Progress on the individual technologies is promising, but there are insufficient analytical tools for evaluating the effectiveness of these concept munitions. This paper examines some of the modeling aspects of wide area search munitions with Autonomous Target Recognition (ATR) capability. The unique aspect of the munition problem is that a search agent is lost whenever an attack is executed. This significantly impacts the overall effectiveness in a multi-target/false target environment. ATR measures of performance will be introduced, and described in terms of a confusion matrix for the sensor. The single munition/single target and general multi-munition/multi-target cases will be discussed, and a simple application will be used to validate the modeling constructs.

Modeling Signal Latency Effects Using ARENA™
Shane Dougherty (Det 1 28 TS/F-22) and Raymond R. Hill and James T. Moore (Air Force Institute of Technology)

Recent military operations have showcased the abilities of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), particularly in their ability to effectively perform those tasks too dangerous for manned aircraft. We examine non-autonomous operations of an UAV in those instances where the vehicle is used for laser target designation in support of precision guided munitions with non-line-of-sight command and control of the UAV. Non-line of sight UAV control requires a satellite communications link which involves a level of signal delay, or signal latency. This latency may impact the accuracy of the laser designation and thus the accuracy of the guided weapon. A simulation model is defined, built, and used to address the signal latency impacts of our defined UAV targeting scenario.

Tuesday 10:30:00 AM 12:00:00 PM
Logistics 1

Chair: Mike Payne (BAE)

Closed-Loop, Simulation-Based, Systems Engineering approach to Life Cycle Management of Defense Systems
Sean Connors, Julie Gauldin, and Marshall Smith (Clockwork Solutions)

Assessing the life-cycle impacts of operations and maintenance decisions made for new or aging systems requires an accurate ability to measure and respond to uncertainty. Maintenance and parts requirements forecasts for fielded military systems are traditionally performed through historical repair and supply demand models. These models work well once several years of steady state weapon system operation has been accomplished, but tend to depend on a stable and somewhat regular operations and support structure. Predictions based on data that capture the cyclic trends that tend to occur as the fleet endures standard operations, scheduled maintenance, and average component failure rates work best when components are relatively new. Aging systems comprised of component populations of varying ages can be adversely affected by change or the failure to change the traditional maintenance and support concepts. The right action for a new system may result in adverse impacts when considering older systems.

Simulation of Transportation Logistics
David Goldsman and Sebastien Pernet (Georgia Institute of Technology) and Keebom Kang (Naval Postgraduate School)

In this paper, we discuss issues concerning the simulation of transportation systems. In particular, we demonstrate a number of implementation tricks that are designed to make the modeling and coding processes more efficient and transparent. We present examples involving the simulation of commercial airline and military sealift operations.

An Analysis of STOM (Ship to Objective Maneuver) in Sea based Logistics
Keebom Kang and Kenneth H. Doerr (Naval Postgraduate School), Kyle A. Bryan (U.S. Strategic Command (J411)) and Gregorio Ameyugo (NATO Research and Technology Organisation )

Operational Maneuver From the Sea (OMFTS) and its implementing concept, Sea Based Logistics (SBL) stress the need for logistically supporting forces ashore directly from a sea base. This study analyzes the capability of a current LHD-class amphibious ship to sustain a force deployed ashore through direct Ship-To-Objective Maneuver (STOM) of replenishment and logistics support. We have developed a simulation model that can evaluate performance of STOM operations using an LHD-class amphibious ship as a sea base. Results indicate a substantial increase in the number of aircraft, and reliability of those aircraft, and/or a substantial reduction in sustainment requirements are needed in order to successfully accomplish the scenarios used in this study. The results of this study could support the design of future LHD-class ships.

Tuesday 1:30:00 PM 3:00:00 PM
Logistics 2

Chair: Keebom Kang (Naval Postgraduate School)

Applications of Simulation in Logistics Combat Developments
Gregory H. Graves (U.S. Army Combined Arms Support Command) and Jeffrey L. Higgins (TRADOC Combat Developments Engineering Division)

As the Army undergoes a transformation from the logistics intensive organizations that currently comprise the force to a more agile and sustainable force, changes in logistics concepts and organizations are inevitable. Because much of the Army’s future equipment and most future organizations are still in the conceptual stages, these elements must be modeled. Simulation provides a valuable tool for not only modeling the structure or attributes of a future system, but also for comparing alternative concepts for how systems should be employed and equipped. In this paper, we present three applications of how simulation was used within the U.S. Army Combined Arms Support Command in the design and analysis of current and emerging logistical systems in the Army.

Evaluation of Army Corps Artillery Ammunition Supply Systems via Simulation
Ihsan Sabuncuoglu (Bilkent University) and Durdu Hakan Utku (Turkish Military Academy)

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the evaluation of different alternatives for the implementation of Turkish army corps artillery ammunition supply system. The objective is to see whether the alternative systems operate properly and to select the best system design. We find that the first alternative system cannot supply the units for all phases of an eight-day battle time while the second, the third, and the fourth systems can supply and yield better results. The third system is less costly than the second and the fourth systems. However, it has the drawback of too many vehicles in the convoy (i.e., congestion) which makes it susceptible to the enemy long distance and air assaults. The fourth system is the best of all from the point of the performance it yields; but, it costs more compared to the other systems.

Using Simulation to Understand Interim Brigade Combat Team (IBCT) Munitions Logistics
Todd S. Bertulis (US Total Army Personnel Command) and J. O. Miller (Air Force Institute of Technology)

Today, military leaders have limited options when reacting to the wide range of current threats existing in our world. These threats demand forces able to deploy rapidly while possessing combat capabilities to stabilize a hostile area quickly. The Army’s answer to this requirement is the Interim Brigade Combat Team (IBCT). Logistically supporting the IBCT will require the Army to develop organizations that exploit available technologies automating support activities, enhancing situational awareness, and minimizing the overall logistics footprint. The unit responsible for supporting the IBCT is the Brigade Support Battalion, which establishes an ammunition transfer point (ATP) for the storage and distribution of ammunition stocks throughout the IBCT area. This study employs an Arena 5.0 discrete-event simulation model to explore the performance of the ATP over a set of operating conditions. This set of operating conditions was selected with a statistical design of experiments using two different sets of transportation assets and ATP personnel as factors.

Tuesday 3:30:00 PM 5:00:00 PM
Agent Modeling

Chair: Raymond Hill (Air Force Institute of Technology)

Models of Defeat
Gary King, Brent Heeringa, David Westbrook, Joe Catalano, and Paul Cohen (University of Massachusetts, Amherst)

Coalition operations are increasingly effects-based, which means they apply force only as necessary to achieve political and psychological effects. Capture the Flag is a wargaming environment that includes intelligent, autonomous adversaries. Our planner previously focused on two goals: occupying objectives and attrition. But attrition is a means to the defeat of one's enemies, not an end in itself. For Capture the Flag to plan for defeat, it needs a model of defeat. We model the "capacity for conflict" as a leaky bucket: when a unit's bucket is full, it has no more capacity for conflict and it capitulates. Flow into and out of the bucket is modulated by several factors including attrition and heroism. The model is inherently dynamical, so it exhibits the time-dependent behaviors one observes in real conflicts; for example, identical attacks will have different effects on capitulation as a function of their timing.

The Use of Agent-Based Models in Military Concept Development
Jeffrey R. Cares (Alidade Consulting)

Modeling and simulation of military operational concepts has historically been exceedingly difficult and costly. This is in part due to the inherent complexity of military operations. This paper discusses a method of analysis, Agent-Based Modeling, which brings an appropriate level of complexity to the task of evaluating military operational concepts. Techniques for military concept development are addressed and a potential case study is presented.

Reducing Training Costs through Integration of Simulations, C4I Systems, and Expert Systems
Mark Whelan, John Loftus, David Perme, and Richard Baldwin (Gestalt, LLC)

The Department of Defense doctrine of "train as you would fight" exemplifies the military’s focus on training as a key component in the preparation of today’s warfighter. The positive result of implementing this doctrine has been clearly demonstrated. The costs of implementing training programs, however, have been high. Simulations have historically supported this training by augmenting and supplementing real world scenarios and data. The incorporation of these tools is often problematic as the simulations may not have been designed for integration with operational Command, Control, Communication, Computer, and Intelligence (C4I) systems that are used in training events. These integrations are too often manual. The integration of simulations and C4I systems through the use of software tools and intelligent agent technologies results in significant cost reductions and allows for increased flexibility and effectiveness of training.

Wednesday 8:30:00 AM 10:00:00 AM
Weapon and Communication Systems

Chair: Joe Stewart (MITRE)

Virtual Life Assessment of Electronic Hardware Used in the Advanced Amphibious Assault Vehicle (AAAV)
Ricky Valentin, Jeremy Cunningham, Michael Osterman, Abhijit Dasgupta, and Michael G. Pecht (University of Maryland) and Dinos Tsagos (Office of Naval Research)

This paper presents the use of techniques for simulating product qualification as well as for product testing of electronic hardware to be used in the United States Marine Corp’s Advanced Amphibious Assault Vehicle. The goal of integrating "up-front" virtual life assessment into the development environment is to increase overall product reliability and decrease overall product cost by decreasing build-test-fix time and promoting optimized tradeoff analysis early in the design stage. Relevant problems included: the positioning of a large microcircuit near the center of the board, weakness to shock loading, and life expectancies of around six (6) to eight (8) years. Failure in the form of electrical opens and/or increased circuit resistance due to thermo-mechanical and random vibration induced fatigue of solder interconnects was predicted as the dominant wearout failure mechanism. A weeklong qualification test is proposed to verify the virtual life assessment results of the life cycle loads.

Simulating Crisis Communications
William S. Murphy, Jr. (Illinois Institute of Technology Research Institute (IITRI)) and Mark A. Flournoy (United States Marine Corps)

This paper addresses the need for simulation of voice and data communication demands during civil and military crisis events. Modeling of federal, state, and local civilian agencies in addition to military forces can lead to better planning and execution decisions during the crisis. The need has become particularly acute following recent terrorists attacks on the United States. Preliminary crisis communication modeling capabilities exist in the Network Warfare Simulation (NETWARS) software that has been successfully used to model networks supporting the military's Operation Enduring Freedom. We will examine the software's features, limitations, and potentials.

Modeling the Wireless Network Architecture of Land Warrior
Fernando Maymi, John Surdu, Andrew Hall, and Ryan Beltramini (United States Military Academy)

The United States Army is designing and implementing a revolutionary advance in the combat power of individual infantrymen on the battlefield: Land Warrior. In Land Warrior, each soldier becomes a node in a wireless local area network (WLAN). In order to account for likely losses of line of site between soldiers, the On Demand Multicast Routing Protocol (ODMRP) is used. The purpose of this research was to construct a simulation study to determine whether the communications architecture of Land Warrior was sufficiently scalable to use in large Army units. This paper describes the input analysis conducted to determine probability distributions used to generate message traffic. This paper also describes the development of the simulation model used to determine the scalability of the Land Warrior communications architecture.

Wednesday 10:30:00 AM 12:00:00 PM
Plebes, Dogs, and Robots

Chair: Eric J. Gottlieb (Orion International Technologies, Inc.)

Simulation Analysis of the United States Military Academy Reception Day
Dominik Nogic (United States Army) and Michael Nowatkowski (Dept. Systems Engineering, USMA)

Each June approximately 1200 new cadets (NCs) are welcomed to the United States Military Academy (USMA) during Reception Day (R-Day). Amid the mass shuffling of bodies and the yelling of the upperclass cadet cadre, all 1200 NCs must completely in process. Changes are made to the in processing system in attempt to make it more efficient. However, the effect of these changes can only be gauged once a year during the following R-Day. In an attempt to expedite the refinement process, the R-Day administrators approached our design team to create a simulation model that could be used to analyze the effect of proposed changes to the system prior to R-Day 2002. Using ProModel® simulation software, our team created a simulation of the in processing system and conducted a statistical analysis of the results in order to recommend improvements to the structure of the system.

Simulating without Data
Dean S. Hartley, III (Hartley Consulting)

As a general rule, simulation requires detailed data to properly represent a problem. Occasionally, a problem may be successfully solved using only reasonable approximations to the data. This paper describes such a situation. The Army’s health services conceived the Personal Information Carrier (PIC) as a replacement for the “dog tag.” The concept was to support portable personal health records. The problem was to determine the contents of the records to be stored in the PIC.

The Umbra Simulation Framework as Applied to Building HLA Federates
Eric J. Gottlieb (Orion International Technologies, Inc.) and Michael J. McDonald, Fred J. Oppel, J. Brian Rigdon, and Patrick G. Xavier (Sandia National Laboratories)

Sandia’s Umbra modular simulation framework was designed to enable the modeling of robots for manufacturing, military, and security system concept evaluation. Umbra generalizes data-flow-based simulation to enable modeling of heterogeneous interaction phenomena via a multiple worlds abstraction. This and other features make Umbra particularly suitable for developing simulation federates. Umbra’s HLA interface library utilizes DMSO’s HLA Run Time Infrastructure 1.3-Next Generation (RTI 1.3-NG) software library to federate Umbra-based models into HLA environments. Examples draw on a first application that provides component technologies for the US Army JPSD’s Joint Virtual Battlespace (JVB) simulation environment for Objective Force concept analysis.

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