WSC 2003 Final Abstracts

Wargames, Preemption and a Lot of Other Curious Behavior
James F. Dunnigan (Strategy Page)

Abstract:
Wargames have been used by the American military for over a century. This is for good reason as wargames work. A wargame is an attempt to get a jump on the future by obtaining a better understanding of the present and the past. Wargames have no problem with what is now called the "doctrine of preemption." Preemption is just another form of surprise and surprise has always been a major weapon in warfare. This paper, and the associated military keynote address, discusses wargames, who uses them, and why the wargames work. In addition, trends and the future impact of wargames are discussed.

Action Models
Gary W. King, Clayton T. Morrison, and Paul R. Cohen (University of Massachusetts)

Abstract:
Building military simulations requires bridging the gap between the knowledge of commanders and computer representations of that knowledge. A significant part of this knowledge concerns military tasks, their interactions, and an understanding of how to grade their achievement. Action Models describe the complex spatial and temporal dynamics of goal directed tasks with a graphical notation. Commanders can understand the notation and Knowledge Engineers can convert it into declarative or procedural forms. The conversion makes possible automated After Action reviews of plans written in terms of these tasks. We describe Action Models, their conversion into Tapir, a declarative executable action language, and their use in the DARPA Rapid Knowledge Formation (RKF) Program.

Frequency-Based Designs for Terminating Simulations: A Peace-Enforcement Example
Susan M. Sanchez (Naval Postgraduate School) and Hsin-Fu Wu (United States Navy)

Abstract:
In recent years, the U.S. Marine Corps has begun developing an infrastructure for applying agent-based models and simulation, computing power, and data analysis and visualization technologies to help answer complex questions in military operations. Factor screening approaches are of particular interest, since even relatively simple agent-based models may have hundreds (or even thousands) of inputs that can be varied. We describe a new experimental design, called a frequency-based design, that can be used for exploring the behavior of terminating simulations. We apply this to a model of a peace-enforcement operation. We examine the behavior of four performance measures (including two attrition ratios) and discuss how the results confirm and complement earlier findings. We conclude with a brief discussion of issues that merit further investigation.

UTSAF: A Multi-Agent-Based Framework for Supporting Military-Based Distributed Interactive Simulations in 3D Virtual Environments
Joseph Manojlovich, Phongsak Prasithsangaree, Stephen Hughes, Jinlin Chen, and Michael Lewis (University of Pittsburgh)

Abstract:
A Military-based distributed interactive simulation (DIS) such as ModSAF has been used for many years. Several problems of the DIS-based simulation to support a large and heterogeneous virtual simulation environments have been discovered. To solve these problems, we propose an architectural multi-agent-based framework to support a large military-based simulation with 3D visualization using inexpensive game simulators. A software agent is used to reduce DIS traffic to efficiently utilize network bandwidth. It also performs protocol conversion between DIS protocol and a game engine protocol. Additionally, using a multi-agent system, our work is easily expandable to support several network environments and also to support agent-based intelligent operations. Our main contribution is twofold. We use multi-agent system which is scalable to support our framework. In addition, our framework builds a simulation bridge that enables affordable high-quality 3D viewer node using affordable game simulations for military simulations.

Specifying the Behavior of Computer-Generated Forces without Programming
Daniel Fu, Ryan Houlette, and Randy Jensen (Stottler Henke Associates, Inc.)

Abstract:
The behavior of automated forces in military training simulations is frequently hard-coded by a software developer after conferring with subject matter experts. These experts do not directly participate in the development process, instead relying on the developer to correctly implement appropriate behavior. This dependency can result in increased simulation development time and cost. We present a visual behavior representation and accompanying authoring tool that is meant to accelerate the development process by enabling experts to participate in development, while not hindering software developer productivity. An author using this tool constructs behaviors by assembling flowchart-like diagrams from a set of building blocks. The resulting behaviors can be directly executed in a simulation using a simplified yet powerful computational model, also described in this paper. We also discuss the application of this visual behavior representation to the creation of automated players for the Counter-Strike computer game.

Fidelity and Validity: Issues of Human Behavioral Representation Requirements Development
Tom Hughes and Evan Rolek (General Dynamics, Advanced Information Systems)

Abstract:
Within the modeling and simulation (M&S) community issues of fidelity and validity are often considered the fundamental metrics used to gauge the quality and utility of a given model or simulation. These concepts are also critical to the development of representational requirements during the creation of both constructive and virtual simulation environments. Unfortunately there seems to remain significant confusion regarding the operational definitions of these terms and their implications for the development of human behavioral representation requirements. An effective requirements analysis can provide a degree of traceability from fidelity requirements back to simulation goals and objectives so that appropriate tradeoffs can be made. The present paper reviews our methodology, which is based on a cognitive systems engineering approach, and preliminary findings to date.

Assessing Technology Effects on Human Performance through Trade Space Development and Evaluation
Christopher R. Hale (Science Applications International Corporation)

Abstract:
Constructive simulation provides an exploratory environment for performance – effectiveness tradeoffs. However, technology trade spaces comprise many potential experiments, each containing a large sample space of experimental outcomes. Exploration of this entire space is an intractably large problem. We describe a methodology that focuses analysts only on regions of the trade space holding the most promise for effective analyses. Our methodology uses an iterative process to define the trade space, develop system and operator descriptions, parameterize the trade space and analyze performance against requirements. Each step is briefly described through the use of a notional attack aircraft crew system example. Four vectors through the trade space are identified to guide definition of specific issues modeled within the Combat Automation Requirements Testbed (CART) environment. CART constructive simulations serve a critical role by allowing rapid development and testing of alternative technologies in each area of interest.

Search Theory, Agent-Based Simulation, and U-Boats in the Bay of Biscay
Lance Champagne and R. Greg Carl (The Air Force Institute of Technology) and Raymond Hill (Wright State University)

Abstract:
To date, most search theory study has focused either on analytical models of specific situations requiring rigid assumptions, or, as in the case of search and rescue, operational experiments aimed at obtaining detection probabilities for a variety of scenarios. Analytical search theory results provide bounds on empirical results. This research introduces an agent-based simulation approach to the subject of offensive search operations in combat. Generally, the value of a combat simulation is measured in terms of insights gained through experimentation. Agent-based simulation enables insights with regards to the emergent behavior of the individual combatants, groups of combatants, or the system as a whole. Emergent behavior for the purposes of this research is system behavior, not explicitly programmed, arising from local interactions between agents. Such behavior with respect to search effectiveness is investigated within the context of a historical case study involving offensive search.

Dynamic Path-Planning for Search and Destroy Missions – The Bay of Biscay Scenario
Subhashini Ganapathy and Raymond R. Hill (Wright State University)

Abstract:
Among the many modeling methods used for military applications, simulation modeling is one of the most popular as it offers flexibility and an ability to perform “what-if” analysis. In this paper, we discuss search and destroy missions in the context of the World War II Bay of Biscay U-boat scenario. We present a simulation architecture that supports integration of human reasoning with simulation-based optimization methods.

Bay of Biscay: Extensions into Modern Military Issues
Lance E. Champagne (Air Force Institute of Technology)

Abstract:
Multi-agent simulations are finding application in an increasing number of areas over a wide spectrum of disciplines. In recent years, the application of multi-agent systems to problems in the military has received a proportional amount of interest. However, the military analysis community is in its infancy with respect to multi-agent simulations, and the efforts thus far have involved relatively simple scenarios. As a result, these efforts have not been able to bring multi-agent simulations into the mainstream of the analysis community. In this paper a mission-level agent-based simulation of the U-Boat war in the Bay of Biscay between German U-Boats and Allied aircraft is presented. The results from two 6-month intervals of the operations are presented and compared to historical outcomes. The scenario is subsequently generalized to provide a basis for extension into modern military situations of significant interest. Additionally, several relevant examples are presented.

Simulation based Decision Support for Supply Chain Logistics
Subhashini Ganapathy and S. Narayanan (Wright State University) and Krishnamurthy Srinivasan (Intel Corporation)

Abstract:
Supply chain logistics planning is a complex process in both military and civilian operations. Poor planning may lead to system instability that might seriously influence the ability of the supply chain to satisfy its customers or might affect a combat mission. Therefore, correct decisions need to be made to optimize the performance of the system. It is important that the right information is transferred to the concerned unit that needs to receive the right information. Our model features a decision support system that aids human in making decisions and studies the role of a decision support system in enhancing the performance of the supply chain logistics system. The model is object oriented in nature, which helps in rapid prototyping of the different components of the system.

Impact of an Autonomic Logistics System (ALS) on the Sortie Generation Process
Paul D. Faas (Air Force Research Laboratory) and J. O. Miller (Air Force Institute of Technology)

Abstract:
The current Air Force aircraft logistics system is reactive in nature, meaning that once a fault is detected, maintenance personnel must perform fault isolation procedures and then take steps to repair or replace the faulty item. The Autonomic Logistics System (ALS) concept changes this reactive process into a proactive one. This new approach to the logistics process shows the potential for cost savings, increased aircraft availability, and better system performance. With an ALS, certain logistics tasks can be handled autonomously such as ordering parts for a broken system, calling the right maintenance specialist to the right aircraft, or notifying the maintenance control center that a certain aircraft has a malfunctioning system and will not be available for the next sortie. This study employs an Arena 5.0 discrete-event simulation model to explore the effect of an ALS on the sortie generation process for a fighter squadron during day-to-day operations.

T.LoaDS Treatment of Assigning and Filling Orders
Bob Hamber (Naval Facilities Engineering Service Center)

Abstract:
The Tactical Logistics Distribution System (T.LoaDS or TLoaDS) is a powerful and flexible simulation application for assessing current or future tactical distribution systems. It is a discrete event analytical model for assessing the pros and cons of new doctrine, distribution techniques, organizational structures, and equipment concepts. It can also be used for mission planning allocating available resources to sustain a military force in a wide variety of scenarios. This paper covers how TLoaDS models the order assigning and filling process. While order assigning is simple, the order filling process dynamically selects the combination of container, handler, and transporter appropriate for the current order, conditions and rule set. A scoring system with user adjustable weighting factors allows biasing the shipment plan towards more efficient use of transporters, or more responsive filling of orders.

Human Effectiveness Issues in Simulated Uninhabited Combat Aerial Vehicles
Sasanka V. Prabhala, Jennie J. Gallimore, and S. Narayanan (Wright State University)

Abstract:
The advancement in technology has brought a new revolution in the military domain. The success of the two unmanned reconnaissance prototypes Predator and Hunter had paved the way to the development of more challenging remotely operated vehicles (ROVs), such as uninhabited combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), used for locating, identifying, and destroying the enemy targets. As these semi-autonomous systems become more and more complex, the use of automation tools become inevitable. Although automation is introduced to reduce operator workload, increase in the automation features also increases the complexity of the system. The complexity of the system is increased by factors like situational awareness, trust, biases, workload, skill degradation as well as many other human factors issues. The purpose of this paper is to describe the research and development of a UCAV interfaces and simulation that can support human factors issues for controlling multiple UCAVs.

A Game Engine based Simulation of the NIST Urban Search and Rescue Arenas
Jijun Wang, Michael Lewis, and Jeffrey Gennari (University of Pittsburgh)

Abstract:
We are developing interactive simulations of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Reference Test Facility for Autonomous Mobile Robots (Urban Search and Rescue). The NIST USAR Test Facility is a standardized disaster environment consisting of three scenarios of progressive difficulty: Yellow, Orange, and Red arenas. The USAR task focuses on robot behaviors, and physical interaction with standardized but disorderly rubble filled environments. The simulation will be used to test and evaluate designs for teleoperation interfaces and robot sensing and cooperation that will subsequently be incorporated into experimental robots. This paper describes our novel simulation approach using an inexpensive game engine to rapidly construct a visually and dynamically accurate simulation for both individual robots and robot teams.

Research Plan Development for Modeling and Simulation of Military Operations in Urban Terrain
Thomas M. Cioppa, John B. Willis, Niki Deliman Goerger, and Lloyd P. Brown (US Army Training & Doctrine Command Analysis Center)

Abstract:
The transformation of the US Army to the Objective Force will rely heavily upon the use of modeling and simulation (M&S) for analysis, including assessment of our ability to fight in urban environments. Current model research for military operations in urban terrain (MOUT) is disjoint. Current models are judged to be insufficient as a foundation for simulation of urban operations. The Army Model and Simulation Office (AMSO) has formed a Focus Area Collaborative Team (FACT) to address these issues. The MOUT FACT directs all future urban operations modeling efforts to ensure that new simulations credibly depict MOUT. The MOUT FACT employs a top-down approach designed to (1) identify the best urban M&S projects that will address prioritized deficiencies and (2) identify potential collaboration opportunities. This paper details the methodology employed by the MOUT FACT to develop the urban M&S research plan and the results of its efforts to date.

JTLS-JCATS Federation Support of Emergency Response Training
Francis A. Bowers, III and David L. Prochnow (The MITRE Corporation)

Abstract:
The Joint Warfighting Center (JWFC) supports Combatant Commander exercise programs with several simulation suites. Ten years ago simulated scenarios involved combat. Increasingly, however, scenarios depict crisis requiring humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, or similar emergency response (ER). JWFC responded to the change in scenario requirements by developing a simulation suite using existing Joint Simulations and the High Level Architecture (HLA). This paper briefly introduces JWFC's concept of simulation-based exercise support and recommends its application to training and exercising members of an Emergency Operations Center (EOC) or other ER management staff. The bulk of the paper describes federating the Joint Theater Level Simulation (JTLS) with the Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS). The paper presents a notional scenario involving the simulated detonation of a chemical weapon and articulates how the decisions made by the training audience, members of an EOC, result in simulated actions and events taken to mitigate casualties.

Homeland Defense Center Network – Capitalizing on Simulation, Modeling and Visualization for Emergency Preparedness, Response and Mitigation
Jack Corley (Advanced Technology Institute) and Dan Lejerskar (Eon Reality, Inc.)

Abstract:
Emerging simulation, modeling and 3D visualization technologies (3D-SMV) could be used to dramatically improve how we prepare for, respond to and recover from disaster across federal, state, and local lines. It is now possible, at low-cost, to: · Address 3D-SMV needs with seamlessly integrated, commercial, scalable, networked solutions. · Provide unique flexibility to reuse 3D-SMV content across PC, laptop, or mobile devices via CD, LAN or Internet. · Portray fully interactive 3D-SMV on multi-wall display and, without change, on monitors with optional accessories including head-mounted displays, haptic gloves, 3D glasses. In the Homeland Defense Center Network, ATI is teamed with Eon Reality and University-based Homeland Defense Centers. Each Center has unique expertise in applying 3D-SMV to: urban assessment; surveillance; sensor simulation; critical infrastructure; scalable training; firefighting; and HAZMAT. This paper describes efforts to use these centers to capitalize on 3D-SMV for training and decision support throughout the emergency life-cycle.

A Framework for Modeling and Simulation for Emergency Response
Sanjay Jain (Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University) and Charles McLean (National Institute of Standards & Technology)

Abstract:
A number of modeling and simulation tools have been developed and more are being developed for emergency response applications. The available simulation tools are mostly meant for standalone use. Addressing an emergency incident requires addressing multiple interdependent aspects of the situation. The simulation tools addressing different aspects of an emergency situation need to be integrated to provide the whole picture to planners, trainers and responders. A framework is required to ensure that modeling and simulation tools can be systematically integrated together to address the overall response. This paper proposes a framework for integration of modeling, simulation and visualization tools for emergency response. The development and implementation of the proposed framework will significantly improve the nation’s capability in the emergency response area.

Piggy-Backed Time-Stepped Simulation with 'Super-Stepping'
S. C. Tay, G. S.H. Tan, and K. Shenoy (National University of Singapore)

Abstract:
We propose an optimization technique for reducing global synchronizations in traditional time-stepped simulations. Time-stepped simulations are known to be efficient when events are frequent or dense. However, when events are less frequent (when compared to the size of time-steps) the performance of time-stepped simulations drop noticeably. This paper aims at improving the performance of traditional time-stepped simulations during low frequency periods and maintaining its efficiency during high frequency periods. We focus on interactive simulations which have tight real-time interactive constraints. The proposed optimization is achieved by informing the host about future events. This information is ‘piggybacked’ on the ready messages sent by the participating Processing Elements (PE) to the host. We maintain simulation efficiency by switching between the proposed technique and the traditional technique depending on the observed event density. To achieve this switching we introduce a concept called 'super-stepping'. A probabilistic method is used to optimize 'super-step' size.

Pre-Reckoning Algorithm for Distributed Virtual Environments
Thomas P. Duncan and Denis Gracanin (Virginia Tech)

Abstract:
This paper proposes a pre-reckoning algorithm for distributed virtual environments. First, an overview of dead reckoning techniques used in distributed virtual environments is provided. The benefits and drawbacks of implementing dead reckoning within specific types of distributed virtual environments are discussed. An alternative to traditional dead reckoning techniques used in DIS-compliant distributed virtual environments is proposed. The alternative, referred to as "pre-reckoning," seeks to significantly reduce prediction error with a minimal increase in the number of entity state update packets issued. The performance of the pre-reckoning algorithm is compared to one of the DIS standard algorithms for location prediction. The test cases are based upon a game-based environment where the movements of participants are influenced by physical boundaries.

Simulation Modeling and Analysis in Support of Brigade Assault Bridging Operations Planning
Patrick James Delaney (United States Army)

Abstract:
Simulation models allow us to examine the performance of critical systems variables and provide input into a decision making process. In military operations, the complex inter-actions of many subsystems necessitate the use of simulation models. The key is scoping the problem at the outset and being flexible enough to add or delete model items, as needed. This paper provides some insight into a quick analysis for the Army of brigade assault river crossing requirements and the use of discrete-event simulations in determining what the “real” requirement should be. Additionally, a spatial and temporal analysis builds on the initial analysis. Both analyses provide critical input to a military commander’s decision-making process.

Caveats for Simulation Modeling in Support of Decision Making
Christopher M. Hill (United States Army) and Linda C. Malone (University of Central Florida)

Abstract:
Simulation modeling is a tool commonly used in support of intelligent decision making by senior managers, particularly for extremely complex problems. This article uses an example from the United States Army Recruiting Command to illustrate some of the statistical pitfalls an analyst may encounter when using simulation modeling. These pitfalls include conflicting results, both due to different modeling approaches and choice of input distributions, and incorrect interpretation of the simulation experimental results. The paper also provides implications for analysts who encounter these situations. The analyst who uses simulation in support of senior decision-makers must understand simulation’s capabilities, limitations, and statistical underpinnings. Failing to do so can result in decisions based on incorrect information. Analysts can guard against these pitfalls through careful consideration of statistics, preparation, and communication.

Evaluation of Army Corps Food Supply System Using Simulation
Ozan Pembe and Ihsan Sabuncuoglu (Bilkent University)

Abstract:
The Food Supply System is one of the main elements of the Army Logistics System. The ultimate objective in a food supply system is to provide the food at the right time and in the right amount at the right place. If this objective is achieved, the morale, the health, and the strength of the soldiers on the battlefield will enormously enhanced. The purposes of this study are to test if the existing food supply system of the Turkish Army operates properly under the war conditions; to identify the potential problem areas; and establish time standards for different scenarios. We use simulation as the modelling and analysis tool to answer the above questions. The proposed simulation model of the Army Corps Food Supply System is built in Arena and the results are analyzed statistically.

The use of Recursive Simulation to Support Decisionmaking
John B. Gilmer, Jr. and Frederick J. Sullivan (Wilkes University)

Abstract:
Recursive simulation is the technique of having simulated decisionmakers themselves use simulation to inform decisionmaking. In past research, these recursive simulation runs have evaluated the possible outcomes given that a decision was made one way or the other, allowing a simulated commander to consider the consequences of the alternatives. However, this allows only a reactive benefit, since the issue must first be framed in terms of a decision to be made. This paper explores other possibilities. It raises issues of how to represent the information about the future from projections not tied to a specific decision. Also considered is how the explicit details of what is projected might be conveyed back to the current planning context in order to make possible proactive actions.