WSC 2004 Final Abstracts |
Tuesday 10:30:00 AM 12:00:00 PM
Special Session: Assessing Terrorist Risk
Chair: Dave Pendergraft (Accenture)
Abstract:
The threat of terrorist
attacks in the U.S. continues to pose a risk to the insurance industry. The
first attack on the World Trade Center in 1993, the 1995 Oklahoma City Bombing,
and the catastrophic events of September 11, 2001 all serve as reminders
to the insurance markets that man-made catastrophe risk should be proactively
underwritten and managed. As the terrorism landscape continues to evolve,
the insurance industry is seeking to quantify, underwrite, manage, and transfer
risk from this unfamiliar peril. The RMSŪ U.S. Terrorism Risk Model provides
a comprehensive analysis of terrorism risk in the U.S., quantifying risk
from both foreign and domestic terrorist organizations. It supports multi-line
risk analysis for both certified and non-certified events causing property
loss, business interruption, and workers compensation claims.
A Framework for Simulating Human Cognitive Behavior and Movement When Predicting Impacts of Catastrophic Events
Mary Court and Jennifer Pittman (University of Oklahoma), Christos Alexopoulos,
David Goldsman, Seong-Hee Kim, Margaret L. Loper, and Amy R. Pritchett (Georgia
Institute of Technology) and Jorge Haddock (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute)
Abstract:
Our
nation has seen an increased need to train its civil authorities and emergency
personnel under life-threatening scenarios where human life and critical
infrastructure are assumed to be at risk. This training is typically obtained
or re-enforced via (human) performance-based tests. At issue is the ability
to accurately simulate the scenarios without exposing personnel or human
test subjects to injury. In addition, these performance-based tests carry
a large monetary cost, and certain scenarios are so complicated, catastrophic
or rare that any performance-based test is unrealistic. Our paper outlines
the research that must be conducted to develop a framework for modeling and
analyzing risk-assessment and decision making when evacuat-ing large populations.
The research is aimed at extending an existing construct for simulating passenger
and crew behavior during aircraft evacuations, to larger populations, and
relies upon rare-event simulation methods, parallel-and-distributed simulation
and agent-based simulation.
Homeland Security Guest Address: Managing the Risk of Terrorism?
Gordan Woo (Risk Management Solutions (RMS))
Tuesday 1:30:00 PM 3:00:00 PM
Crisis Management - Be Prepared
Chair: Craig Robertson (Accenture)
Abstract:
As the U.S.
Department of Homeland Security works to create an integrated emergency response
system, it is evident that computer-based solutions can support this process.
Individual commercial simulation packages and databases can provide a partial
solution, but are not easily integrated to provide a comprehensive analysis
of the events. To achieve model and domain knowledge integration, an analysis
framework is developed to allow a broad range of simulation systems to share
information, including inputs, models, and results. This analysis framework
facilitates the combination of standalone scenarios into one master scenario
where the overall chain-of-events can be analyzed and optimized. This paper
describes a framework used in the simulation of an anthrax incident. The
simulation modeled State, City, and Department of Health EOC processes executed
under the Incident Command System (ICS). Hospital and distribution center
models were integrated to add the effects and impact of the general population
into the scenario.
The Hats Simulator
Paul R. Cohen and Clayton T. Morrison (USC Information Sciences Institute)
Abstract:
The
Hats Simulator is designed to be a lightweight proxy for many intelligence
analysis problems, and thus a test environment for analysts' tools. It is
a virtual world in which many agents engage in individual and collective
activities. Most agents are benign, some intend harm. Agent activities
are planned by a generative planner. Playing against the simulator, the
job of the analyst is to find harmful agents before they carry out their
plans. The simulator maintains information about all agents. However, information
is hidden from the analyst and some is expensive. After each game, the analyst
is assessed a set of scores including the cost of acquiring information about
agents, the cost of falsely accusing benign agents, and the cost of failing
to detect harmful agents. The simulator is implemented and currently manages
the activities of up to one hundred thousand agents.
Simulation Analysis of Virtual Geographic Routing
David M. Nicol (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign) and Michael E.
Goldsby and Michael M. Johnson (Sandia National Laboratories)
Abstract:
Homeland defense applications will use large-scale ad-hoc networks of small
devices. Routing is a crucial problem, for naive
means do not scale well. Geographic Routing (GR) (Karp 2000; Giordano, Stojmenovic,
and Blazevic 2003) offers
hope for scalability, under the assumption that every device
knows its geographic coordinates, e.g., through GPS.
This solution is unsuitable though when there is no easy means
of establishing a device's physical location.
indoors. To address this limitation we
propose {\em Virtual Geographic Routing} where we construct
a virtual coordinate space and use GR within it. This paper
describes VGR, compares the characteristics of paths
VGR identifies with those that GR identifies, then
presents theoretical and empirical evidence for its scalability.
Operational Analysis Framework for Emergency Operations Center Preparedness Training
Eytan Pollak (Lockheed Martin Simulation, Training and Solutions), Mark
Falash (Lockheed Martin Simulation, Training and Support) and Lorie Ingraham
and Vivian Gottesman (Lockheed Martin Simulation, Training and Solutions)
Tuesday 3:30:00 PM 5:00:00 PM
Simulating Physical Security
Chair: Sanjay Jain (Virginia Tech)
Abstract:
Border control
is vital to the security of the nation and its citizens. In this study, we
analyze the performance of a Border Company via simulation. Our main objective
is to find more efficient ways of improving border control and security along
the land borders of Turkey. To achieve this objective, we examine the structure
of the border security system and its major components, understand the relationships
between performance measures, and assess the effectiveness of each security
elements on system performance measures. We also investigate system responses
when some changes are implemented or new resources added, and evaluate alternative
system designs. Key Words: Military Simulation, Border Security
A Template-Based Conceptual Modeling Infrastructure for Simulation of Physical Security Systems
Ashu Guru and Paul Savory (University of Nebraska - Lincoln)
Abstract:
Although
simulation is one of the most innovative and cost-effective tools for modeling
and analyzing a system, simulation studies often fail to provide any useful
results. One reason is attributed to the fact that model formulation depends
on the skills of the analyst. This paper describes a research to develop
a conceptual modeling infrastructure to assist a simulation analyst in specifying
components for studying physical security systems. The modeling framework
has been programmed as an internet-based web application. Using the application,
the successful develop-ment and implementation of a physical security simulation
model will be aided by a defined scientific methodology rather than simply
the skills of the analyst. Further the modeling framework is simulation language
independent, thus allowing for a top-down or bottom-up approach to developing
the conceptual model. This offers support for an object-oriented modeling
design.
Simulation of an Airport Passenger Security System
David R. Pendergraft, Craig V. Robertson, and Shelly Shrader-Brawley (Accenture LLP)
Abstract:
As
part of the new security environment at the nation’s airports, discrete event
simulation modeling was applied shortly after 9-11 to understand the operational
dynamics of passenger security screening in conjunction with the redesign
of the passenger checkpoint. In a rapid six week effort, a discrete event
simulation model was built to represent the passenger and luggage screening
system at Baltimore Washington International Airport (BWI). BWI was the
first airport to undergo enhancement, and the project was reported in “BWI’s
Subtle But Serious Security,” Washington Post, March 4, 2002. After the
value of simulation was demonstrated at BWI, the simulation methodology was
applied to develop resource requirements at all Category X and I airports
in the United States.
Simulation Modeling and Analysis of Border Security System
ihsan sabuncuoglu and gokhan celik (Bilkent University)