WSC 2005 Final Abstracts

Responding to Terrorist Attacks and Natural Disasters: A Case Study Using Simulation
Pavel Albores and Duncan Shaw (Aston Business School)

Abstract:
The heightened threat of terrorism has caused governments worldwide to reconsider their plans for responding in the immediate aftermath to large-scale catastrophic incidents. This paper discusses the use of discrete event simulation modeling to understand how a Fire Service might position its resources before an attack takes place, to best respond to a combination of different attacks at different locations if they happen. Two models are built for this purpose. The first model deals with mass decontamination of a population following biological or chemical attack – aiming to study resource requirements (vehicles, equipment and manpower) necessary to meet performance targets. The second model deals with the allocation of resources across regions – aiming to study cover level and response times, analyzing different allocations of resources, both centralized and decentralized. Contributions to theory and practice are outlined.

Modeling an Emergency Operations Center with Agents
Margaret L. Loper and Bart Presnell (Georgia Tech Research Institute)

Abstract:
The Georgia Emergency Management Agency (GEMA) operates the State Operations Center, which is the centralized hub for all communications regarding state operations, with respect to emergency response. The Center provides three primary functions: Request for Information, Request for Assistance, and Media Relations. The Center has responsibility for the entire process of servicing an emergency, from instigation to communication to execution to ending service for the emergency. To accomplish this, the Center is set up like a production facility, which follows a well-defined process articulated in a plan. In this project, we worked with GEMA to develop a simulation of the Center. The simulation, called GEMASim, models the information flow among people working within the Center, as well as the flow of information coming into and leaving the Center. Data is presented on the initial experiments with GEMASim using two different scenarios.

Integrated Simulation and Gaming Architecture for Incident Management Training
Sanjay Jain (The George Washington University) and Charles R. McLean (National Institute of Standards and Technology)

Abstract:
The simulation-based training systems that are available or under development today for incident management are typically focused on macro level sequence of events. A few systems targeted at individual responders are under development using a gaming environment. Separate uses of such systems provide disparate experiences to decision makers and individual responders. There is a need to provide common training experiences to these groups for better effectiveness. This paper presents a novel approach integrating gaming and simulation systems for training of decisions makers and responders on the same scenarios preparing them to work together as a team. An integrated systems architecture is proposed for this purpose. Major modules in gaming and simulation subsystems are defined and interaction mechanisms established. Research and standards issues for implementation of the proposed architecture are discussed.

Training First Responders to Nuclear Facilities Using 3-D Visualization Technology
Robert L. Sanders and Joseph E. Lake (Oak Ridge National Laboratory)

Abstract:
The development of an advanced visualization and simulation tool for first responder exercises and education is presented. This tool exploits cutting edge computer graphics, physics-based effects modeling, virtual reality, and gaming technologies to establish a system that can eventually be used for the administrative planning and training of first responders in homeland security, homeland defense, and combating terrorism communities.

First Responder Information Flow Simulation: A Tool for Technology Assessment
C. Donald Robinson and Donald E. Brown (University of Virginia)

Abstract:
New information technology is becoming available for first responders at a rapid rate. Often this new technology comes with not only new capabilities but also a high price tag. Policy makers and emergency managers need a way to assess which portfolio of technologies achieves the greatest benefit at a minimal cost. Assessing these technologies in a real world setting not only takes a long time but is also often cost-prohibitive. Thus, using computer simulation to assess the benefits of new technologies would yield significant insight into the usefulness of new technologies in a cost and time-efficient manner. A computer simulation combining an agent-based architecture and GIS information called Disaster Response Information Flow and Technology Simulator (DRIFTS) is developed to model the information flow in a disaster setting. DRIFTS, combined with a response surface methodology, can be used to assess different types of information technologies for disaster response.

A Survey of Data Resources for Simulating Patient Flows in Healthcare Delivery Systems
K. Preston White, Jr. (University of Virginia)

Abstract:
Modeling and simulation studies of patient flows in healthcare systems have been reported consistently in these Proceedings for over a decade. Our ongoing research in this area is motivated by our desire to develop models which will illuminate the causes and remedies for repeated area-wide ambulance diversions experienced in a metropolitan hospital system. In this paper we summarize our background research on the sources of data available to calibrate patient-flow simulation models, including time series for patient admission, discharge, diagnoses, length-of-stay, and inpatient census for emergency departments and hospitals. Specifically, we review the input analyses reported for various prior simulation studies, including data capture and technical difficulties in reducing data for model calibration. We also suggest alternative sources of data that could prove especially useful in simulation studies of mass ambulance diversions, as well as heavy, area-wide patient loads that might be associated with emergency responses.

Multiple Fidelity Simulation Optimization of Hospital Performance Under High Consequence Event Scenarios
Jason R, Schenk, Ning Zheng, and Theodore T. Allen (The Ohio State University) and Deng Huang (Scientific Forming Technologies Corporation)

Abstract:
In optimizing systems, experimental models are often available with different levels of cost and different levels of “fidelity” or trustworthiness, a fact that can be exploited. For example, a highly detailed model might be made for a few possible configurations, supplemented by a large number of rough models that are less expensive to construct. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the application of a recently proposed Multiple Fidelity Sequential Kriging Optimization (MFSKO) method to derive the optimal resource allocation for disaster preparedness of a hospital. The system is evaluated via discrete event simulations of two sophistication levels. The MFSKO method integrates multiple fidelity data, including real-world data, in search for the global optima with less total evaluation cost. Kriging meta-models are generated as by-products of the optimization.

Hospital Evacuation: Issues and Complexities
Kevin M. Taaffe, Rachel Kohl, and Del Kimbler (Clemson University)

Abstract:
Hospital evacuation is a difficult process that requires a robust strategy and careful execution. In the past, threats leading to possible evacuation were primarily natural disasters. In recent years the broadened nature of threats, including hazardous material spills and terrorist incidents, has complicated this already complex problem. Its importance continues to grow, but there is still no consistent approach to tackle this problem. Plan development and evaluation are crucial to the plan’s refinement, which leads to successful response when an evacuation threat occurs. This research describes the issues inherent in planning and evaluation along with the complexities of constructing appropriate models for emergency preparedness and evacuation.

A Simulation Model of a Helicopter Ambulance Service.
Ersan Gunes and Roberto Szechtman (Naval Postgraduate School)

Abstract:
We study two different operational scenarios for a regional air ambulance service-company which has bases in northern California. Two of these bases serve the land areas encompassed roughly in a circular area of radius 100 miles centered in Gilroy and Salinas, respectively; with a large part of their coverage areas reachable from either base. The base in Salinas currently operates one helicopter only from Thursday to Monday, whereas the base in Gilroy operates one helicopter 24/7. The company is considering extending the operation of one helicopter to 24/7 for its Salinas base. In this paper we analyze the operational impacts of that extension, and develop a framework that can be applied towards the study of the ambulance assignment problem faced by small operators.

A Conceptual Architecture for Static Features in Physical Security System Simulation
Volkan Ustun, Haluk Yapicioglu, Skylab Gupta, and Abishek Ramesh (Auburn University)

Abstract:
The aim of this paper is twofold: First, to propose a data model that enables the user to model a physical facility at different levels of detail and explicitly incorporate interactions among the components of the facility. Second to suggest a methodology for line-of-sight, which is the primary factor in recognition of threats in physical security settings.

Simulation of Imperfect Information in Vulnerability Modeling for Infrastructure Facilities
Dean A. Jones (Sandia National Laboratories) and Mark A. Turnquist and Linda K. Nozick (Cornell University)

Abstract:
A model of malicious intrusions in infrastructure facilities is developed that uses a network representation of the system structure together with Markov models of intruder progress and strategy. Simulation is used to analyze varying levels of imperfect information on the part of the intruders in planning their attacks. This provides an explicit mechanism to estimate the probability of successful breaches of physical security, and to evaluate potential means to reduce that probability.

Planning for Terrorist-caused Emergencies
Russell R. Vane (General Dynamics Advanced Systems)

Abstract:
This paper provides a framework for assessing hypothesized/simulated emergencies in order to provide quick protection for the populace and infrastructure; and also to protect first responders. These challenges – the need to respond quickly and safely – are the focus for how we must sense, represent, and act upon these progressively revealed events. And this must be done continually. In general, hypergame theory provides an approach to pre-planning, situational discovery and model updating to help friendly leadership to decide what to do next in any adversarial scenario.