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WSC 2005 Final Abstracts |
Military Applications Track
Monday 10:30:00 AM 12:00:00 PM
Military Keynote
Chair: Raymond
Hill (Wright State University)
New Paradigms and New Challenges
Paul K.
Davis (RAND)
Abstract:
This paper lays out provocative assertions about major
challenges for the modeling and simulation community. One relates to building
M&S for the purpose of assisting the search for strategies that are
flexible, adaptive, and robust despite uncertainty. A key aspect of this
search is exploratory analysis, coupled with selective zoom. These, in turn,
require multiresolution modeling with sound models (albeit, with uncertain
data). But sound models must be adaptive models, since humans are adaptive.
And rigorous analysis with adaptive models, such as those involving agents,
requires new methods and attitudes, as well as new tools.
Monday 1:30:00 PM 3:00:00 PM
Data Farming Agent Models Related to
Military Questions
Chair: Gary Home (MITRE
Corp)
Marine Corps Applications of Data
Farming
Adam J. Forsythe, Gary E. Horne, and Stephen C. Upton
(Referentia Systems Incorporated)
Abstract:
Project Albert is a modeling and simulation initiative
of the United States Marine Corps that combines the rapid proto-typing of
agent-based distillations with the exploratory power of data farming to
rapidly generate insight into mili-tary questions (Fry 2002). Data farming
focuses on the complete landscape of possible system responses, rather than
attempting to pinpoint an answer. This “big picture” solution landscape is an
invaluable aid to the decision maker in light of the complex nature of the
modern battle-space. And while there is no such thing as an optimal deci-sion
in a system where the enemy has a vote, data farming allows the decision maker
to more fully understand the landscape of possibilities and thereby make an
informed decision. The goal of data farming is that decision makers will no
longer be surprised by surprise. This paper outlines some data farming
explorations conducted over the past few years.
Data Farming: Discovering Surprise
Gary
E. Horne (Referentia Systems Inc.) and Theodore E. Meyer (The MITRE
Corporation)
Abstract:
Data Farming is a methodology and capability that makes
use of high performance computing to run models many times. This capability
gives modelers and their clients the enhanced ability to discover trends and
outlier in results, do sensitivity studies, verify and validate over extended
ranges of input parameters, and consider modeling and analyzing non-linear
phenomena with characteristics that can not be precisely defined. As high
performance computing, in the form of distributed computing capabilities and
commodity node systems becomes more pervasive and cost effective, Data Farming
can become more available to modelers. In this paper the authors summarize
Data Farming and the processes and data architecture of Data Farming systems
that make high performance computing readily available to modelers.
Simulation Environment to Assess Technology
Insertion Impact and Optimized Manning
Niraj Srivastava and Frank
Pietryka (The Sevaan Group LLC), Gary E. Horne (Referentia Systems Inc) and
Mark Theroff (NSWC Crane)
Abstract:
The reduction in life-cycle costs for Naval vessels is
critical for operating a cost efficient and robust Navy. Computer based
simulations are an effective tool for human system integration optimization,
as well as for studying the risks associated with complex interaction between
crew and systems. The proposed modular simulation environment empowers
analysts to choose and integrate the best combination of agent, discrete
event, and physics based simulations to address questions of manning. The
environment embraces advances in complexity theory for simulating non-linear
systems, knowledge discovery for data analysis and distributed computing for
execution environment.
Using Agent Models and Data Farming to Explore
Network Centric Operations
Henrik Friman (Swedish National Defense
College) and Gary E. Horne (Referentia Systems Incorporated)
Abstract:
Network Centric Operations are difficult to quantify in
many respects with models or other methods. Data Farming is a methodology and
capability that makes use of high performance computing to run models many
times. In the case of agent-based models that are relatively small, many runs
can be performed in a short period of time. This capability gives modelers and
their clients the enhanced ability to discover trends and outlier in results
in a variety of areas. In this paper the authors discuss some notional efforts
to begin to explore questions in the area of network centric operations using
the agent model MANA and Data Farming. By observing the network behaviors and
the output for traditional and Information Age warfare we have created
comparisons that illustrate when networked forces outfight non-networked
forces.
Monday 3:30:00 PM 5:00:00 PM
Issues in Human Performance Modeling for
Military Systems
Chair: Janet Miller (Air Force Research Laboratory)
The Pairwise Escape-g Metric: A Measure of Air
Combat Maneuvering Performance
Antoinette M. Portrey (Lockheed
Martin), Brian Schreiber (S&D Statistical Consulting Services) and Winston
Bennett, Jr. (AFRL/HEAS)
Abstract:
The Air Force Research Laboratory, Warfighter Readiness
Research Division, is continuously researching tools to measure performance of
knowledge and skills from an individual level to the Command and Control (C2)
level, within both high fidelity distributed simulation environments and live
training environments. Using the Performance Effectiveness Tracking System
(PETS), we ran preliminary testing of a metric called Pairwise Escape-G that
uses a concept called the Theoretical Instantaneous Probability of Weapon
Intercept (TIPWI). TIPWI takes into ac-count the current geometry of one
aircraft against another for each given weapon (i.e., the physics-based
envelope parameters) and is the weapon’s probability of threat intercept at
any instant during an engagement. This paper will describe the initial
application of the Escape G metric within the Distributed Mission Operations
Testbed (four high-fidelity F-16 simulators, one Airborne Warning and
Controller System console, and Instructor Operator Station), preliminary
outcomes, and suggested applications for this metric.
Simulating Scenarios for Research on Culture &
Cognition Using a Commercial Role-play Game
Rik Warren (Air Force
Research Laboratory), David E. Diller, Alice Leung, and William Ferguson (BBN
Technologies) and Janet L. Sutton (Army Research Laboratory)
Abstract:
Most research on culture and cognition uses self-report
tasks such as paper and pencil questionnaires. Such tasks are inexpensive,
quick, and easy to score, but they are vulnerable to response bias and
manipulation effects. Action-based or performance tasks can be more absorbing
and permit more of someone’s natural behavior to emerge but are rarer due to
increased costs, lower experimenter control, and difficult logistics. Computer
games can potentially regain the benefits of real performance and immersive
play while retaining experimenter control and keeping costs low. Properly
constructed, computer games can simulate action-demanding scenarios which
embed opportunities for personality and culturally-conditioned behaviors to
manifest themselves. This is especially true when computer-simulated
non-player characters are included which exhibit carefully modeled behaviors.
However, such simulations are not themselves panaceas. This paper examines
some of the concepts we have tried, the challenges we have faced, and the
lessons we have learned.
An Approach to Human Behavior Modeling in an Air
Force Simulation
Brooke H. McNally (ASC/XREM SIMAF)
Abstract:
This paper presents a multi-level approach to
incorporating more realistic human behavior models into military simulation
environments. The Air Force is incorporating different levels of intelligent
agents within the Enhanced Air-to-air Air-to-Ground Linked Environment
Simulation (EAAGLES) to represent the human decision making processes required
in military simulations. This will provide user’s the ability to determine at
what level of fidelity they need to represent human behavior to achieve their
study objectives. EAAGLES is currently incorporating two mental models -
Situational Assessment Model for Pilot in the Loop Evaluation (SAMPLE) and
Soar. This paper will present an introduction to these mental models and
discuss how they can be used in the EAAGLES environment. This paper will also
introduce and discuss the difficulties associated with validating human
behavior models that are used in military simulations.
Tuesday 8:30:00 AM 10:00:00 AM
Advance Military Modeling I
Chair: Brooke McNally (ASC/XR)
Sports Analogy for Modelling of Combat in the Air
Domain
Alan Cowdale (Air Warfare Centre)
Abstract:
Aggregated models of Air Warfare invariably rely on a
user input value for probability of success (kill) or ‘exchange ratio’ in
Air-to-Air Combat. There is limited historical data available to validate
these parameters for engagements between non-peer opponents. This paper
explores the potential for gaining insights to non-peer Air-to-Air outcomes
from the world of sport, and examines the results from Association Football
competitions in England.
On Using SPEEDES as a Platform for a Parallel Swarm
Simulation
Matthew A Russell, Gary B. Lamont, and Kenneth Melendez
(Air Force Institute of Technology)
Abstract:
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) research is an
increasingly important pillar of national security and military interest. A
high fidelity discrete event simulation is prerequisite to any systems
implementation. The Synchronous Parallel Environment for Emulation and
Discrete Event Simulation (SPEEDES) is a versatile and powerful tool that can
be used for realization of this objective. A suite of five experiments
measures the efficiency a parallel UAV swarming SPEEDES application. Results
indicate that the conservative time management produces more than twice the
speedup as optimistic time management.
Simulation Validation with Historic
Outcomes
Raymond R. Hill (Wright State University) and Lance E.
Champagne (Logistics Management Agency)
Abstract:
Combat, unlike many real-world processes, tends to be
singular in nature. That is, there are not multiple occurrences from which to
hypothesize a probability distribution model of the real world system.
Mission-level models may offer more flexibility on some measures due to their
extended time frame. Additionally, the parameters involved in the
mission-level model may be unchanged for significant stretches of the total
simulation time. In these cases, time periods may be devised so that the
periods hold sufficiently similar traits such that the incremental results may
be assumed to come from a common distribution. This paper details a new
statistical methodology for use in validating an agent-based mission-level
model. The test is developed within the context of the Bay of Biscay
agent-based simulation and uses the monthly data from the extended campaign as
a basis of comparison to the simulation output.
Tuesday 10:30:00 AM 12:00:00 PM
Effects-Based Military Modelings
Chair: Angela Dowling (ARA)
Implementation of a Framework for
Vulnerability/lethality Modeling and Simulation
Kim J. Allen and
Craig Black (Applied Research Associates)
Abstract:
The Department of Defense (DoD) has employed Modeling
and Simulation (M&S) tools in Vulnerability and Lethality (V/L)
assessments of weapon/target systems for many years. A wide variety of
simulation tools exist that are used to conduct specific aspects of analyzing
weapon systems effectiveness and/or target susceptibility to blast, fragment
penetration, hardened target penetration, etc. Previously, a somewhat natural
separation of domains existed for these models among surface mobile, ground
fixed and airborne target classes. However, it has become evident that many of
the methods implemented as part of their respective simulations have
applicability across domains. Where applications provide a concrete solution
for a particular problem, frameworks are meant to provide a generic solution
mechanism for a set of similar or related problems. This simple concept was
the key to the implementation of a reusable, extensible architecture known as
the Endgame Framework.
A Validation of First-order Detonation Shock
Dynamics Theory
David E. Lambert (Air Force Research Laboratory,
Munitions Directorate) and D. Scott Stewart and Sunhee Yoo (University of
Illinois, Urbana-Champaign)
Abstract:
High energy explosives are used in a variety of
applications, from military to industrial processes. The use of embedded,
inert material “wave shapers” is a primary method to customize the detonation
front for desired explosive applications. These systems create detonation
states that do not follow the simple line of sight, or Huygens model and,
hence, advanced detonation physics with associated theory are required. The
theory of detonation shock dynamics (DSD) is one such description used to
provide high fidelity modeling of complex wave structures. A collection of
experiments using ultra-high speed cameras is presented as a means of
obtaining spatial and temporal characteristics of complex detonation fronts
that validate the DSD descriptions. The method of test, operational conditions
and results are given to demonstrate the use of high-rate imaging of
detonation events and how this validates our understanding of the physics and
the capability of advanced detonation wave tracking models.
Simulation-based Performance Modeling for War
Fighter in Loop Minefield Detection System
Abhilash Rajagopal and
Sanjeev Agarwal (University of Missouri Rolla) and Sreeram Ramakrishnan
(University of Missouri-Rolla)
Abstract:
There has been significant recent interest in airborne
reconnaissance for target detection using high resolution air-borne images
collected from an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). Even if Automatic Target
Recognition (ATR) al-gorithms are able to produce satisfactory results in
terms of probability of detection for certain false alarm rate, there is a
need for a Warfighter-in-the-Loop (WIL) to reduce false alarms further and
verify and validate detections to attain the operational performance
requirements. We develop a simulation model to assess effectiveness of the
warfighter in decision loop for airborne minefield detection. The war-fighter
effectiveness is measured in terms of average waiting-time, number of
minefield segments in queue and the expected false alarms and missed
detection. Various parameters which potentially affect the warfighter
performance are identified with the help of prior studies with hu-man operator
in laboratory settings. Simulation trials were conducted to evaluate the
dependence of these parameters on warfighter performance.
Tuesday 1:30:00 PM 3:00:00 PM
Distributed Modeling for Military
Applications
Chair: Deborah Hileman (Air Force Material Command)
Enabling 1,000,000-Entity Simulations on Distributed
Linux Clusters
Gene Wagenbreth (Information Sciences Institute,
Univ. of So. Calif.), Ke-Thia Yao ( University of Southern California), Dan M.
Davis (Information Sciences Institute, Univ of So. Calif), Robert F. Lucas
(Information Sciences Institute, Univ. of So. Calif.) and Thomas D. Gottschalk
(Center for Advanced Computing Research, Caltech)
Abstract:
The Information Sciences Institute and Caltech are
enabling USJFCOM and the Institute for Defense Analyses to conduct
entity-level simulation experiments using hundreds of distributed computer
nodes on Linux Clusters as a vehicle for simulating millions of JSAF entities.
Included below is the experience with the design and implementation of the
code that increased scalability, thereby enabling two orders of magnitude
growth and the effective use of DoD high-end computers. A typical JSAF
experiment gen-erates several terabytes of logged data, which is queried in
near-real-time and for months afterward. The amount of logged data and the
desired database query performance mandated the redesign of the original
logger system’s monolithic database, making it distributed and incorporating
several advanced concepts. System procedures and practices were established to
reliably execute the global-scale simulations, effectively operate the
distributed computers, efficiently process and store terabytes of data, and
provide straightforward access to the data by analysts.
A Framework for Fault-Tolerance in HLA-Based
Distributed Simulations
Martin Eklöf (Swedish Defence Research
Agency (FOI)), Farshad Moradi (Swedish Defence Research Agency) and Rassul
Ayani (Royal Institute of Technology (KTH))
Abstract:
The widespread use of simulation in future military
systems depends, among others, on the degree of reuse and availability of
simulation models. Simulation support in such systems must also cope with
failure in software or hardware. Research in fault-tolerant distributed
simulation, especially in the context of the High Level Architecture (HLA),
has been quite sparse. Nor does the HLA standard itself cover fault-tolerance
extensively. This paper describes a framework, named Distributed Resource
Management System (DRMS), for robust execution of federations. The
implementation of the framework is based on Web Services and Semantic Web
technology, and provides fundamental services and a consistent mechanism for
de-scription of resources managed by the environment. To evaluate the proposed
framework, a federation has been developed that utilizes time-warp mechanism
for synchronization. In this paper, we describe our approach to fault
tolerance and give an example to illustrate how DRMS behaves when it faces
faulty federates.
Language Based Simulation, Flexibility, and
Development Speed in the Joint Integrated Mission Model
David W.
Mutschler (NAVAIR)
Abstract:
The Joint Integrated Mission Model (JIMM) uses generic
system components and a simulation language that allows developers to program
specific system, platform, and player characteristics, tactics, and doctrine.
This permits great flexibility in simulation design and rapid modification of
system types in complex simulations. However, the time and expense of
developing complex simulations can be longer than desired. These costs can be
mitigated by constructing scenarios for reuse and providing example scenarios
for common use. In addition, a graphics user interface (GUI) can also
facilitate reuse and perform some functions faster and more easily than can be
achieved directly through simulation language text editing. This paper will
discuss efforts in simulation construction, simulation reuse, and GUI
development currently undertaken by the JIMM Model Management Office (JMMO).
Tuesday 3:30:00 PM 5:00:00 PM
Military Acquistion and Employment
Modeling
Chair: Raymond Hill (Wright State
University)
An Approach to Design and Development of
Decentralized Data Fusion Simulator
Chandresh Mehta, Govindarajan
Srimathveeravalli, and Thenkurussi Kesavadas (State University of New York at
Buffalo)
Abstract:
This paper discusses the ongoing efforts on development
of a Decentralized Data Fusion (DDF) simulator for analysis and design of a
distributed fusion-based tracking system. We have identified the requirements
for a DDF simulator and have developed a fully interactive, graphical user
interface based scenario generation tool called SceneGen (Srimathveeravalli,
Subramanian and Kesavadas 2004) for creating battlefield scenarios, and a
simulation tool called VizSim for running various DDF algorithms on scenarios
created in SceneGen and displaying the simulation results in an easy to
understand fashion. SceneGen and VizSim have been designed with a full
compliment of user utilities, including an efficient terrain database
generation module, a sensor report generation module and the database
connectivity to store and retrieve scenarios and simulation results. The
innovative visualization techniques used in the simulator helps in displaying
the data in a fashion that transfers maximum information to a user.
Exploring C4ISR Employment Methods
Terri
G. Chang (Center for Army Anaysis)
Abstract:
We will investigate several employment schemes for
Command, Control, Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR)
collection assets in a simulated Force combat model. These collection assets
include Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and any ground platforms, normally part
of a conventional coalition force lay down. Samples of ground assets include:
armored personnel carriers (APC), helicopters, tanks, trucks, binoculars and
eyes. Collection asset performance characteristics along with obtained sensor
scans enable probabilistic identification of participating adversaries or
their weapon systems. Comparative analysis focuses on the time to initial
enemy observation, threshold of commander’s critical information requirements
met, and prevention of collection asset loss rate. The analyst controls all
thresholds via the user interface. Additionally, a paradigm for information
management, i.e. intelligence fusion, is presented. We explore procedures for
reducing data volume within this paradigm. We will also discuss implications
for the coordination of simulation, analysis, and acquisition activities.
Acquisition-Based Simulation
Grant
Martin, Jeffrey Schamburg, Michael K. Kwinn, and Jr. (United States Military
Academy)
Abstract:
The Army acquisition community requires high-resolution
simulations that represent the dismounted infantry soldier in enough detail to
conduct an analysis of alternatives (AOA) for individual weapons and
equipment. These models must also be capable of assessing future, proposed
capabilities and technologies. Previous work established a detailed,
representative set of soldier functions which should be modeled, as well as
proposed coordination among three different models. This paper describes the
technique used for implementing that coordination on behalf of the acquisition
community. It does so in two parts. First, we discuss the methodology used to
transforming the needs of the acquisition community into analysis needs.
Second, we describe how we integrated the soldier functions into those
analysis needs to derive simulation requirements. We will conclude with a
discussion of how effective the technique has been in practice.
Wednesday 8:30:00 AM 10:00:00 AM
Advance Military Modeling II
Chair: John Gilmer (Wilkes University)
The HITVICE VV&A Environment
Fang Ke,
Yang Ming, and Wang Zicai (Harbin Institute of Technology)
Abstract:
VV&A process needs to be systematically organized
and costs heavy workload. Conventional VV&A tools are mostly designed for
special simulation needs, and are lack of flexible workflow processing, CSCW
support and integrated resource managing etc. The simulation community needs a
synthetic environment more than scattered tools to speed the process of
VV&A. In this paper, we introduce our HITVICE VV&A environment for
totally facilitating VV&A. The system can realize workflow automation,
hierarchical evaluation, CSCW, lifecycle data management and flexible
authority control etc. External VV&A tools can also be integrated into
HITVICE and interchange data with the environment. HITVICE has been applied by
a large different-placed simulation coded 40301. The system proved to be
effective in VV&A assistance, and it’s being improved to satisfy new
requirements from prospective users.
The Application of Evaluation Method Based on Hmm for
Results Validity of Complex Simulation System
Hengjie Song, Ping
Ma, and Ming Yang (Harbin Institute of Technology)
Abstract:
According to the characteristic of randomization and
sequential logic in complex simulation systems, a new evaluation method based
on hidden markov model (HMM) is presented, which applies multivariate
statistical theory to quantificationally evaluate the results validity of
complex simulation system. By importing matrix of observed state vector, the
method enhance the clarity of describing scenario and running states of
simulation systems, and ultimately implement an exploring approach to
quantitative analysis for the results validity. Furthermore, quantificational
evaluation criterion of results validity is given and the critical algorithm
adopted in the process of quantificational evaluation is discussed in detail.
Issues in Event Analysis for Recursive
Simulation
Frederick J. Sullivan, John B. Gilmer and Jr. (Wilkes
University)
Abstract:
Recursive simulation allows decisionmaking entities
within a simulation to themselves use simulation as a way of projecting their
situation into the future. In these imagined futures, events occur that can
significantly affect the entity, and if the information about those events can
be captured and related to the entity's present, better decisionmaking may
result. This paper explores this concept, and some of the issues that arise,
in the context of force on force military simulation.