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WSC 2006 Abstracts |
Homeland Security/Emergency Response Track
Tuesday 8:30:00 AM 10:00:00 AM
Distributed Simulation for Homeland
Security
Chair: Sanjay Jain (The George Washington University)
CIMS: A Framework for Infrastructure
Interdependency Modeling and Analysis
Donald D. Dudenhoeffer and
May R. Permann (Idaho National Laboratory) and Milos Manic (University of
Idaho at Idaho Falls)
Abstract:
Today's society relies greatly upon an array of complex
national and international infrastructure networks, such as transportation,
utilities, telecommunication, and even financial networks. While modeling and
simulation tools have provided insight into the behavior of individual
infrastructure networks, a far less understood area is that of the
interrelationships among multiple infrastructure networks including the
potential cascading effects that may result due to these interdependencies.
This paper first describes infrastructure interdependencies, as well as
presenting a formalization of interdependency types. Next the paper describes
a modeling and simulation framework called CIMS and the work that is being
conducted at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to model and simulate
infrastructure interdependencies and the complex behaviors that can result.
An HLA-Based Multiagent System for Optimized
Resource Allocation After Strong Earthquakes
Frank Fiedrich
(Institute for Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management; The George Washington
University)
Abstract:
In this paper the author presents a distributed
simulation system for disaster response activities based on the High Level
Architecture (HLA). This simulation system focuses on resource management
issues including the allocation of scarce response resources to operational
areas and it consists of three major components: (1) simulators for the
disaster environment, e.g., simulators for damages, casualties and fire
spread, (2) simulators for the operations of personnel and technical equipment
and (3) some auxiliary simulators. A Multiagent System which models resource
allocation tasks within an Emergency Operation Center (EOC) is linked to this
simulation. This paper describes the overall architecture of the system and
presents some results based on a prototype implementation.
A Concept Prototype for Integrated Gaming and
Simulation for Incident Management
Sanjay Jain (George Washington
University) and Charles McLean (National Institute of Standards and
Technology)
Abstract:
This paper describes a prototype that has been
developed to demonstrate the concept of integrated gaming and simulation for
incident management. An architecture for the purpose was developed and
presented at the last conference. A hypothetical emergency incident scenario
has been developed for demonstrating the applicability of integrated
simulation and gaming. A number of simulation and gaming modules have been
utilized to model the major aspects of the hypothetical scenario. The modules
demonstrate the value of utilizing simulation for incident management
applications. They can be used to highlight the value of simulation and gaming
for training applications in particular. Two of the simulation modules have
been integrated using a modified implementation of the High Level Architecture
to give an idea of the advantages. Technical issues in integration are
identified.
Tuesday 10:30:00 AM 12:00:00 PM
Medical System Response Simulation
Chair: Charles McLean (National Institute of Standards and Technology)
A Simulation Model for Bioterrorism
Preparedness in an Emergency Room
Lisa Patvivatsiri (Dept. of
Industrial Engineering, Texas Tech Univeristy)
Abstract:
The use of biological agents as weapons can cause
disease and deaths in sufficient numbers that can greatly impact a city or
region. Consequently, concerns about the preparedness and efficiency of
healthcare systems for bioterrorism events have increased dramatically among
hospital managements. This paper presents an innovative and sophisticated
computer simulation model of the emergency room (ER) at the hospital featured
in this study. The objective was to analyze patient flow throughout the
treatment process, assess the utilization of ER resources, evaluate the impact
of a hypothetical bioterrorist attack, and determine the appropriate resource
and staff levels for such a bioterrorism scenario. The recommended staffing
strategy at two bottlenecked areas of the hospital's treatment facility would
allow a significant reduction in patients' total time in the ER and an
improvement in the utilization of resources. A sensitivity analysis was also
performed to investigate the effect of changes in input parameters.
Improving Hospital Evacuation Using
Simulation
Kevin Taaffe, Matt Johnson, and Desiree Steinmann
(Clemson University)
Abstract:
Hospital evacuation in the event of a hurricane is a
complex and unpredictable process. Recent natural disasters have called
attention to the importance of a timely evacuation plan. The success of an
evacuation greatly depends on developing and evaluating alternative plans.
However, there is no standard approach to address the issues of a hospital
evacuation. This research describes the development of a simulation model and
initial analysis to assess the effectiveness of an evacuation plan given
different scenarios and resources.
Allocating Field Service Teams with Simulation in
Energy/Utilities Environment
Luiz Augusto G. Franzese (PARAGON
Tecnologia), Marcelo Moretti Fioroni (PARAGONTecnologia) and Luiz Eduardo
Pinheiro and João Batista Eustáchio Soares (Elektro Eletricidade e Serviços
S.A.)
Abstract:
Field Service Teams (FSTs) allocation problems are
usually addressed with Linear Programming models. But when certain models can
be very complex, especially if allocation rules are dynamic, pooled resources
can be used and variation is effective. In order to better analyze FSTs
allocation problems for Utilities segment, simulation was used to power
CAPSIM, which has been validated and used by ELEKTRO S.A., one of the largest
Energy Distributors in Brazil. This paper addresses problem conceptualization,
model design and calibration, as well as results and future steps.
Tuesday 1:30:00 PM 3:00:00 PM
Transportation Security Simulation
Chair: Russell Wooten (Department of Homeland
Security)
A Simulation-Based Approach to Trade-Off
Analysis of Port Security
Junko Sekine, Enrique Campos-Nanez, John
Harrald, and Hernan Abeledo (The George Washington University)
Abstract:
Motivated by the September 11 attacks, we are
addressing the problem of policy analysis of supply-chain security.
Considering the potential economic and operational impacts of inspection
together with the inherent difficulty of assigning a reasonable cost to an
inspection failure call for a policy analysis methodology in which
stakeholders can understand the trade-offs between the diverse and potentially
conflicting objectives. To obtain this information, we used a simulation-based
methodology to characterize the set of Pareto optimal solutions with respect
to the multiple objectives represented in the decision problem. Our
methodology relies on simulation and the response surface method (RSM) to
model the relationships between inspection policies and relevant stakeholder
objectives in order to construct a set of Pareto optimal solutions. The
approach is illustrated with an application to a real-world supply chain.
Security Checkpoint Optimizer (SCO): An Application
for Simulating the Operations of Airport Security Checkpoints
Diane
Wilson (Transportation Security Administration) and Eric K. Roe and S. Annie
So (Northrop Grumman)
Abstract:
For most security planners, a key challenge is to
continuously evaluate how changes or additions to their facilities or
procedures impact security effectiveness, operational costs, and passenger
throughput. Each change must be analyzed to ensure negative effects do not
outweigh the benefits. This paper presents Security Checkpoint Optimizer
(SCO), a 2-D spatially aware discrete event simulation tool developed by
Northrop Grumman for the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), a part
of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. SCO is designed to allow security
analysts to graphically build a simulation model and layout a series of
screening activities to take place. Once the model is defined, SCO simulates
passenger movement using both path-based and pathless movement algorithms to
mimic a semi-autonomous passenger traversal of a 2-D space. The software is
designed to allow analysts to perform multiple “what-if” analyses to balance
benefits and tradeoffs.
Detection of Nuclear Material at Border Crossings
Using Motion Correlation
David M. Nicol (University of Illinois
Urbana-Champaign) and Rose Tsang, Heidi Ammerlahn, and Michael M. Johnson
(Sandia National Laboratories)
Abstract:
We consider the problem of isolating a vehicle carrying
nuclear material at a border crossing. As quickly as possible we wish to
identify which vehicle among all those in the area is likely to be carrying
the source. We show that if the border crossing area has technology for
tracking the position of vehicles, we can correlate observed movements with
observed changes in levels of detected radiation---for as the vehicle carrying
the material gets closer to the detector, the stronger will be the detected
radiation. We use a simulation model that captures the stop-and-go dynamics of
a border crossing area to evaluate our ideas, and find a highly successful
technique that tracks which vehicles move just when detected radiation
changes, coupled with fitting radiation intensity/distance observations to an
inverse-square law. This method almost always isolates the sought vehicle just
as soon as the minimum number of data observations is obtained.
Tuesday 3:30:00 PM 5:00:00 PM
Group Dynamics Simulation
Chair:
Frank Fiedrich (The George Washington University)
Crowd Simulation for Emergency Response Using BDI
Agent Based on Virtual Reality
Ameya Shendarkar, Karthik Vasudevan,
Seungho Lee, and Young-Jun Son (The University of Arizona)
Abstract:
This paper presents a novel VR (Virtual Reality)
trained BDI (belief, desire, intention) software agent used to construct crowd
simulations for emergency response. The BDI framework allows modeling of human
behavior with a high degree of fidelity. The proposed simulation has been
developed using AnyLogic software to mimic crowd evacuation from an area under
a terrorist bomb attack. The attributes that govern the BDI characteristics of
the agent are studied by conducting human in the loop experiments in VR using
the CAVE (Cave Automatic Virtual Environment). To enhance generality and
interoperability of the proposed crowd simulation modeling scheme, input data
models have been developed to define environment attributes. Experiments are
also conducted to demonstrate the effect of various parameters on key
performance indicators such as crowd evacuation rate and densities.
Group Information Foraging in Emergency Response: An
Illustration Incorporating Discrete-Event Simulation
Qing Gu and
David Mendonca (NJ Institute of Technology)
Abstract:
Large-scale emergencies require groups of response
personnel to seek and handle information from an evolving range of sources in
order to meet an evolving set of goals, often under conditions of high risk.
Because emergencies induce time constraint, efforts spent on planning
activities reduce the time available for execution activities. This paper
discusses the design and implementation of a discrete-event simulation system
used for assessing how risk and time constraint can impact group information
seeking and handling (i.e., foraging) during emergency response. A
demonstration is given of how system parameters may be tuned in order to
manipulate risk, time constraint, distribution of information and resources
available for response. The results of a pilot test of the implemented system
are briefly discussed. Finally, ongoing extensions of this simulation are
discussed.
Modeling the Emergence of Insider Threat
Vulnerabilities
Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano (Argonne National
Laboratory), Eliot H. Rich (University at Albany), Stephen H. Conrad (Sandia
National Laboratories) and David F. Andersen (University at Albany)
Abstract:
In this paper, we present insights generated by
modeling the emergence of insider threat vulnerabilities in organizations. In
our model, we integrate concepts from social judgment theory, signal detection
theory, and the cognitive psychology of memory and belief formation. With this
model, we investigate the emergence of vulnerabilities (especially that are
insider-driven) in complex systems characterized by high levels of feedback
complexity, multiple actors, and the presence of uncertainty in the judgment
and decision processes. We use the system dynamics method of computer
simulation to investigate the consequences caused by changes to the model’s
assumptions. We find that the emergence of vulnerability can be an endogenous
process and that leverage points to reduce this vulnerability involve
improvement in information acquisition, information management, and the
training of personnel in judgment and decision-making techniques.