WSC 2007 Final Abstracts

NGfast: A Simulation Model for Rapid Assessment of Impacts of Natural Gas Pipeline Breaks and Flow Reductions at U.S. State Borders and Import Points
Edgar C. Portante, Brian A. Craig, and Stephen M. Folga (Argonne National Laboratory)

Abstract:
This paper describes NGfast, the new simulation and impact-analysis tool developed by Argonne National Laboratory for rapid, first-stage assessments of impacts of major pipeline breaks. The methodology, calculation logic, and main assumptions are discussed. The concepts presented are most useful to state and national energy agencies tasked as first responders to such emergencies. Within minutes of the occurrence of a break, NGfast can generate an HTML-formatted report to support briefing materials for state and federal emergency responders. Sample partial results of a simulation of a real system in the United States are presented.

System Implementation Issues of Dynamic Discrete Disaster Decision Simulation System (D⁴S²) - Phase I
Shengnan Wu, Larry J. Shuman, Bopaya Bidanda, Matthew Kelley, Bryan Lawson, Ken Sochats, and Carey D. Balaban (University of Pittsburgh)

Abstract:
Simulation has many advantages in modeling complex systems to facilitate decision making. In this research, an integrated computer system will be developed which incorporates an agent-based discrete event simulator, a geographic information system, a rule base, and interactive databases in addition to interfaces and other supporting components. The modules will seamlessly communicate with each other by exchanging a progression of data, and making a series of deductive decisions through embedded algorithms. This integrated system will be applied to disaster management planning and training and is designated Dynamic Discrete Disaster Decision Simulation System (D⁴S²). Here we address Phase I system implementation issues of D⁴S² which is under development.

Simulation of Time to First Water Application for the First Interstate Bank Fire
Robert Till (John Jay College of Criminal Justice)

Abstract:
On May 4, 1988 a fire occurred after hours on the 12th floor of the First Interstate Bank building, a 62 story steel-frame office tower in Los Angeles California. The sprinkler system in the building was not operational. The fire spread though the 12th floor and extended to the 13th, 14th, 15th and part of the 16th floor before it was under control by the fire department. Discrete event simulation is applied here to evaluate the time for firefighters to access to the 12th floor, the fire origin. GPSS/H is used to analyze lognormal distributions developed to represent the fire-fighter task data. These results are compared to those using triangular distributions, as well as data collected concerning the fire department response to the World Trade Center on 9/11.

Hospital Capacity Planning for Efficient Disaster Mitigation During a Bioterrorist Attack
Jomon Aliyas Paul and Govind Hariharan (Kennesaw State University)

Abstract:
Effective hospital capacity planning can not only signifi-cantly enhance the capability and effectiveness of the treatment provided to patients during a bioterrorist attack but can also provide critical information. While a lot of work has been done to model hospital capacity estimates for natural disasters the same cannot be said for manmade biological disasters like anthrax or smallpox. In this paper, we develop a generic simulation model of hospital capacity planning during a bioterrorist attack. We model both cases in which the occurrence of the attack and the type of agent used are known as well as when they are not known. The model is also unique in developing a feedback loop to alert emergency management officials about the occurrence and type of an attack. Our results are able to pinpoint the characteristics of the hospitals that are most relevant at various stages of exposure and provide policy recommendations.

Allocation of Resources for Hospital Evacuations via Simulation
Esengul Tayfur and Kevin Taaffe (Clemson University)

Abstract:
Department of Health and Environmental Control (DHEC) issued an order recently requiring that all hospitals have an evacuation plan with the following components: sheltering plan, transportation plan and staffing plan. Also, these hospitals carry out tests to become familiar with the sequence of events that need to occur for an effective evacuation. However, risk managers only have a limited number of scenarios that they can actually consider for testing, due to time constraints or complexity in performing the tests. They can not make sure of the efficiency and effectiveness of their plans. Inefficient and ineffective evacuation plan may result in tragic loss of life as occurred in evacuation of hospitals as a result of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. This research proposes a simulation model that can be used by the hospitals to evaluate their performances in case of an evacuation due to a hurricane.

Modeling Bioterrorism Preparedness with Simulation in Rural Healthcare System
Lisa Patvivatsiri (Production Modeling Corporation (PMC)), Elliot J. Montes (W. L. Gore and Associate) and Ouyang Xi (American Bureau of Shipping)

Abstract:
As a result of the anthrax letter incidents in 2001, concerns about terrorists’ use of biological agents have increased dramatically at government state and federal levels. The problem of providing sufficient resources in a healthcare system during a widespread bioterrorist attack is important issues all hospitals encounter. The innovative computer simulation models of the overall treatment process at Lub-bock area healthcare systems were developed using the professional simulation software Flexsim 2.6 to determine the total time patient stays in the system and to identify the staff requirement in order to avoid delays in treatment for a variety of hypothetical bioterrorist attack scenarios.

Comparison of Potential Paths Selected by a Malicious Entity with Hazardous Materials: Minimization of Time Vs. Minimization of Distance
Rakesh Nune and Pamela Murray-Tuite (Virginia Tech)

Abstract:
Security of hazardous materials (hazmat) shipments is a growing concern for many governments and private companies due to their potential use as weapons. This paper identifies a methodology for obtaining the paths taken by a malicious entity when he/she hijacks a hazmat truck based on conditional consequence and a measure of cost (either distance or travel time). The work compares the routes obtained by travel time and distance for a sample network and suggests the need for travel time to be considered in urban areas, especially in peak hours.

An Initial Simulation Model for Aiding Policy Analysis in Urban Insurgencies
Edward George Anderson (University of Texas)

Abstract:
This paper aims to demonstrate the potential for using the system dynamics computer simulation methodology to gain insight into the evolution of insurgencies. In particular, it extends a prior system dynamics model of insurgencies containing the dynamic mechanisms of incident suppression, insurgent creation, and war weariness to also embrace the factors of unemployment, propaganda, finance, and weapons supply chains. Numerous policy simulation tests are then conducted using as a base case a calibration of the model to the Anglo-Irish War of 1916-1921 to examine the effects of various policies aimed at suppressing insurgencies. The paper suggests that none of these policies—when implemented at achievable levels—will be nearly as successful in stopping an insurgency as a coordinated bundle of all of these policies together. The paper then concludes by proposing how a simulation model might be further developed to assist policy makers in managing current insurgencies throughout the world.

A Public Health Application of Data Analysis for Homeland Security
Marjorie Greene and Robert Eek (SAIC)

Abstract:
This presentation follows up the talk last year to WINFORMS (The Washington Institute for Operations Research and The Management Sciences) in which an approach developed for the analysis of military command and control during crises was shown to be relevant to surveillance for an infectious disease outbreak. ProMED-mail is an Internet-based system dedicated to rapid global dissemination of information on outbreaks of infectious diseases and acute exposures to toxins that affect human health. The presentation will demonstrate how the collection, formatting, and analysis of raw data, using ProMED-mail, can point to emerging biological incidents and allow the real-time dissemination of results to local, regional, and central health facilities.

Cyber Attack Modeling and Simulation for Network Security Analysis
Michael E. Kuhl, Jason Kistner, and Kevin Costantini (Rochester Institute of Technology) and Moises Sudit (University at Buffalo)

Abstract:
Cyber security methods are continually being developed. To test these methods many organizations utilize both virtual and physical networks which can be costly and time consuming. As an alternative, in this paper, we present a simulation modeling approach to represent computer networks and intrusion detection systems (IDS) to efficiently simulate cyber attack scenarios. The outcome of the simulation model is a set of IDS alerts that can be used to test and evaluate cyber security systems. In particular, the simulation methodology is designed to test information fusion systems for cyber security that are under development.

Hierarchical Planning and Multi Level Scheduling for Simulation-based Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Hamed S. Nejad, Dongfeng Zhu, and Ali Mosleh (Center for Risk and Reliability)

Abstract:
Simulation of dynamic complex systems, specifically those comprised of large numbers of components with stochastic behaviors, for the purpose of probabilistic risk assessment, faces challenges in every aspect of the problem. Scenario generation confronts many impediments, one being the problem of handling the large number of scenarios without compromising completeness. Probability estimation and consequence determination processes must also be performed under real world constraints on time and resources. In the approach outlined in this paper, hierarchical planning is utilized to generate a relatively small but complete group of high level risk scenarios to represent the unsafe behaviors of the system. Multi-level scheduling makes the probability estimation and consequence determination processes more efficient and affordable. The scenario generation and scheduling processes both benefit from an updating process that takes place after a number of simulation runs by fine-tuning the scheduler's level adjustment parameters and refining the planner's high level system model.