WSC 2008

WSC 2008 Final Abstracts

Homeland Security Track

Wednesday 8:30:00 AM 10:00:00 AM
Homeland Defense and 1st Response

Chair: Russell Wooten (U.S. Department of Homeland Security)

Simulating Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plans for a Public University: A Hierarchical System Dynamics Approach
Tim Lant, Ozgur Merih Araz, Megan Jehn, Cody Christensen, and John Fowler (Arizona State University)

Pandemic influenza preparedness plans strongly focus on efficient mitigation strategies including social distancing, logistics and medical response. These strategies are formed by multiple decision-makers before pandemic outbreak and during the disaster by decision makers in local communities, states and nationwide. Depending on the community that will be affected by pandemic influenza, different strategies should be employed to decrease the severity of the disaster in multiple dimensions of social life. In this paper, a system dynamics methodology is applied to model the population behaviors and the effects of pandemic influenza on a public university community. The system is simulated for multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions with several policies that can be employed by local decision makers. System components are constructed from the pandemic influenza preparedness plan of one of the largest universities in the country. The policies and the decisions are tested by simulation runs and evaluations of the mitigation strategies are presented.

Application of Spatial Visualization for Probabilistic Hurricanes Risk Assessment to Build Environment
Yue Li and Tyler A Erickson (Michigan Technological University)

Hurricanes have caused extensive economic losses and social disruption in the past two decades in the United States. A key component for improving building and infrastructure practices and public planning to reduce the economic losses due to hurricanes and their social impact is the ability to predict the expected damage that such events cause in buildings and other structures as well as the uncertainties in such predictions. Federal, state and county emergency management officers need an effective real-time tool to facilitate the decision regarding when evacuate should begin and who should evacuate before a hurricane, as long as how to timely conduct post-disaster relief. Modern internet-based geospatial tools can be effectively used to provide decision makers with real-time data, model results, and geospatial reference datasets. Probabilistic risk assessment model combined with spatial distributed visualization is proposed in this paper for more efficient hurricane hazard mitigation through risk informed communication.

Dynamic Security: An Agent-Based Model for Airport Defense
William E. Weiss (The MITRE Corporation)

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shifted the focus of airport security in 2004 to incorporate the need to continuously and rapidly adapt security to shifting threats. MITRE is developing a Dynamic Security Airport Simulation as part of a MITRE-sponsored research project in which attacker and defense behavior in the airport environment are modeled. The simulation accepts threat vectors (path-weapon combinations) from other software or the user and models the performance of the airport defense against those threat vectors. The simulation includes two intelligent agents: the attacker and the defense. These agents model the behavior of those two entities; their logic includes both decision making and learning.