WSC 2008

WSC 2008 Final Abstracts

General Applications II Track

Wednesday 8:30:00 AM 10:00:00 AM
Sports and Society

Chair: Ernest Page (The MITRE Corporation)

A Simulation Model to Analyze the Impact of Hole Size on Putting in Golf
Matulya Bansal and Mark Broadie (Columbia University)

We develop a model of golfer putting skill and combine it with physics-based putt trajectory and holeout models to study the impact of doubling the radius of the hole on the putting performance of professional and amateur golfers. The putting skill model reflects golfer execution errors, i.e., that golfers cannot hit the ball at exactly their intended velocity and direction. A green reading skill model reflects a golfer's inability to perfectly estimate the slope or contour of the putting surface. The model is calibrated to professional and amateur putting data. Optimal putting strategies are computed using stochastic dynamic programming. Quasi-Monte Carlo and other methods are used to speed up computations. Doubling the hole radius improves the putting performance of both professional and amateur golfers, as expected. However, the improvement for amateur golfers is shown to be relatively larger than for professionals.

Who's Your Tiger? Using Simulation to Optimize the Lineup of the Detroit Tigers Offense
Jared Michael Davis, Barbara Fordyce, Matthew Cooper, James Cicala, and Omer Tsimhoni (University of Michigan)

As part of an undergraduate engineering class project, a simulation of the Detroit Tigers offense was created to explore potential changes that would increase number of wins. More specifically, we seek to determine a lineup for an MLB team, the Detroit Tigers, that would maximize their potential runs. To answer our ultimate question of whether a manager actually maximizes runs scores, we compare our results to the Tigers’ 2007 performance. We determine that though the Tigers did not use the ideal line-up as determined by our model, the lineup they did utilize was moderately robust, with ours winning 89.6 games versus the actual wins of 88 games. Additionally, we apply our model to a normative analysis of the Tigers ideal lineup for the 2008 season. This ideal lineup only changes the middle of the batting order (acceptable by management) and is predicted to win 99 games in the 2008 season.

An Integrated Model for Evaluating Self Sustainability of Bio-Energy Settlements: Technological, Economical and Social Aspects
Roberto Revetria (DIPTEM, University of Genoa)

The proposed paper present a generalized model based on Monte-Carlo simulation able to support the feasibility study by effectively model the production process, the woods groove and the overall logistics. This model can be applied to quantitatively identify cost and benefits for an integrated biomass energetic district and identify, at the same time, potential and pitfalls that usually reduce the success of an ecologic initiative. A case study implementing the proposed methodology is presented and discussed

Wednesday 10:30:00 AM 12:00:00 PM
Natural Environments

Chair: K. White (University of Virginia)

Towards Applications of Particle Filters in Wildfire Spread Simulation
Feng Gu and Xiaolin Hu (Georgia State University)

Wildfire propagation is a complex process influenced by many factors. Simulation models of wildfire spread, such as DEVS-FIRE, are important tools for studying fire behavior. This paper presents how the sequential Monte Carlo methods, i.e., particle filters, can work together with DEVS-FIRE for better simulation and prediction of wildfire. We define an application framework of particle filters for the problem of wildfire spread using the DEVS-FIRE model, and discuss several applications. A case study example is provided and preliminary results are presented.

Models of a Predator-Prey Relationship in a Closed Habitat
Charles E. Knadler Jr. (none)

The ecological study of the wolf and moose populations of Isle Royale National Park (USA) is the longest running large mammal predator/prey study in the world. A discrete event simulation of the park’s wolf and moose populations is used together with the study’s data to evaluate four candidate ordinary differential models of predator/prey systems. Using a least squares technique, the parameters of the four ordinary differential equation systems are determined for the park’s and the simulation data, then the models are compared using both objective and subjective criteria.

A Simulation Model for Intensive Piglet Production Systems
Lluis Miquel Pla-Aragones, Virginia Flores-Marias, and Sara V. Rodríguez-Sánchez (University of Lleida)

A simulation model representing the dynamics of a sow farm is presented in contrast with other approaches. To highlight relevant aspects of the model a real application for planning piglet production is considered. The main contribution of the model is that sow herd management is based on batches of sows being in the same reproductive state, as actually is done in practice. This features allow to measure the discrepancy with other approaches and comparing different reproductive management strategies in a more realistic way than by using other quantitative methods. Furthermore, the implementation in Extend allows potential users to perform efficiently different kinds of analyses tracking variables of their own interest.