WSC 2008 Final Abstracts

Modeling and Simulation of Multinational Intra-Theatre Logistics Distribution
Ahmed Ghanmi (DRDC - CORA) and Gregory B Campbell and Thomas A Gibbons (CANOSCOM)

Abstract:
Multinational logistics cooperation is essential for reducing the collective logistics footprint, optimizing resource usage and enhancing interoperability in military operations. In this paper, a Multinational Intra-Theatre Distribution (MN ITD) concept for alliance or coalition operations is examined. MN ITD considers the creation of a MN logistics distribution centre that combines elements of the nations’ stovepipes into a single system to improve multinational logistics distribution in a theatre of operation. A discrete event simulation framework has been developed to assess the MN ITD time responsiveness. The MN ITD performance is assessed and compared against the current Canadian Forces distribution system. The study indicates that a MN ITD system would potentially reduce response times for intra-theatre distribution.

A Discrete Event Simulation Model for Examining Future Sustainability of Canadian Forces Operations
Patricia Moorhead, Andrew Wind, and Mira Halbrohr (DRDC CORA)

Abstract:
This paper presents a proof-of-concept discrete event simulation model for examining the ability of the Canadian Forces (CF) to sustain operations, from a human resources perspective. Given a set of future operations for the CF, ranging from known ongoing domestic commitments to possible international missions, the goal is to identify potential shortages of deployable personnel by occupation, rank and unit, up to five years in advance of actual deployment. As a demonstration case, the proof-of-concept model was applied to a contingency analysis of the sustainability of Task Force Afghanistan over a three year planning horizon.

Application of Simulation Modeling for Air Force Enterprise IT Transformation Initiatives
Lisa M. Fitzgerald and Tiffany J. Harper (Nova Technology Solutions)

Abstract:
Simulation modeling can be a key enabler and method for mitigating risk within the Department of Defense’s Enterprise Transformation, especially in the area of the IT systems that enable transformation. This paper provides a brief overview of the Air Force’s approach to enterprise architecture development and demonstrates how modeling and simulation (M&S) can be used to optimize Enterprise IT architecture design to meet the needs of operational end users.

Feasibility Study for Replacing the MK19 Automatic Grenade Launching System
Scott T Crino (United States Military Academy)

Abstract:
The Army’s MK-19 weapon system is an automatic grenade launcher capable of destroying thin-skinned vehicles and dismounted targets at ranges up to 2200 meters. Since its first use in the 1960s, the MK-19 has remained largely unchanged while technology has improved. This research will determine if an alternative weapon system provides a significant improvement in lethality over the MK-19. The Joint Combat and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) is used to test weapon variants against a variety of enemies in terrain similar to current operating environments. The results of these tests – along with the weapon’s mobility and user interface – are analyzed, weighted, and scored through the use of the Systems Decision Process (SDP) developed by the U.S. Military Academy’s Depart-ment of Systems Engineering. Ultimately, this report provides a recommendation to the Army’s Program Manager of Advanced Crew Served Weapons on which weapon provides the greatest value to our troops in theater.

On the Availability of the CH149 Cormorant Fleet
Raman Pall (Defence Research and Development Canada - Center for Operational Research and Analysis)

Abstract:
The CH149 Cormorant is the Canadian Forces (CF) designation for the AgustaWestland EH101, the Canadian Air Force’s only dedicated search and rescue (SAR) helicopter. Since its procurement, the availability for operations of the CH149 fleet has been less than what was initially predicted. This study was undertaken to determine if the low serviceability of the fleet was due to its maintenance programme. A discrete-event simulation model was created to determine the number of aircraft available at any given time during a simulation run, assuming an ideal sparing situation. Analysis indicates that the current fleet cannot operate from four (or even three) Main Operating Bases (MOBs) in an ideal sparing situation, implying that the fleet’s availability problem cannot theoretically be solved simply by addressing the logistical problem of the spares.

Automating the Constraining Process
Joel J Luna (Dynamics Research Corporation)

Abstract:
The typical approach to finding minimum levels of resources that still allow support and operational performance goals to be met for military aircraft is based on a manual trial-and-error method. This is because the function to be minimized (total manpower levels) is an input, and constraints (in terms of support and operational goals) are outputs. An approach with algorithms for automating this optimization, called constraining, is presented, based on dividing the range of total manpower into partitions and then searching for the lowest partition that still returns a manpower allocation that meets the performance goals. A tool, which was developed implementing this approach, is also discussed and results are presented. The conclusion is that while analysts are surprisingly good at finding minimum levels of resources, an automated approach produces acceptable results which are also reproducible and reduce analyst workload.

Creating and Using Non-Kinetic Effects: Training Joint Forces for Asymmetric Operations
Hugh Henry (The MITRE Corporation) and Robert G. Chamberlain (Jet Propulsion Laboratory)

Abstract:
US military forces now face asymmetric military operations. Management of relationships with civilians is often crucial to success. Local population groups can provide critical intelligence or be sources of increasingly violent insurgent activity. A variety of organizations that are neither citizens nor military forces complicate the scenario. Mission readiness and rehearsal training are evolving to respond to this new operating environment. In particular, the Joint Land Component Constructive Training Capability (JLCCTC) adds the Joint Non-kinetic Effects Model (JNEM) and the Independent Stimulation Module (ISM) to any of several combat models. JNEM models the non-kinetic effects of joint military operations on the attitudes and reactions of civilian population groups. ISM manages the flow and delivery of information. All components of JLCCTC communicate in real time during training. Commanders learn that appropriate actions improve the situation (e.g., better cooperation) and inappropriate actions make things worse (e.g., increased numbers of insurgents).

Linear Modeling and Simulation of Low-Voltage Electric System for Single-Point Vulnerability Assessment of Military Installation
Edgar C. Portante, Thomas N Taxon, and James A Kavicky (Argonne National Laboratory) and Tarek Abdallah and Timothy K Perkins (U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center)

Abstract:
This paper describes the formulation and development of a linear model to support the single-point vulnerability assessment of electric distribution systems at existing and future U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) military sites. The model uses flow sensitivity factors to rank candidates for designation as “critical components” and uses triggered cascading line outages to confirm the component’s criticality. The model is written in Java and integrated in a package that employs a user-friendly graphical user interface (GUI) for convenient display of results. This paper describes the process used to formulate the model and presents a sample application

Research and Analysis of Simulation-Based Networks through Multi-Objective Visualizations
J. Mark Belue, Stuart H. Kurkowski, Scott R. Graham, Kenneth M. Hopkinson, Ryan W. Thomas, and Joshua W. Abernathy (Air Force Institute of Technology)

Abstract:
Visualization of individual network events is a crucial part of testing new network designs and analyzing network performance and efficiency. This research designed and developed a framework for visualizing complex military and non-military wired and wireless networks. Our framework provides a robust network simulator trace file parser, multiple network visualization layouts--including user-defined layouts, and precise visualization controls. The parser architecture is capable of accepting trace files from different network simulators and provides one common visualization environment to study network scenarios run on different simulators. The many dynamic multi-objective network views add to the analyst's suite of tools available for analyzing networks. Analysts can toggle between the different views to provide even greater analysis capability. We describe our methodologies for the design and provide example analysis scenarios. Our framework will allow researchers to advance the state of network simulation-based analysis.

Modeling and Simulation of Integrated Intelligent Systems
Yongchang Li, Michael Balchanos, Bassem Nairouz, Neil Weston, and Dimitri Mavris (Georgia Institute of Technology)

Abstract:
Complex systems consist of a large number of entities with their independent local rules and goals, along with their interactions. The effect of these properties tends to produce complex behaviors that are required to be understood in order to analyze and design the systems. However, these behaviors are difficult to be predicted a priori, and can only be studied through simulation. The study presented in this paper proposes a process for developing an integrated dynamic modeling and simulation environment designed for understanding the behavior of the next generation naval ship which is envisioned to be self-sensing, self-assessing and self-reacting. Various models, including power model, fluid model and control model, are developed to investigate the functionalities of the naval ship systems. An object oriented approach is employed to validate the architectural design of the integrated simulation environment and a surrogate modeling technique is utilized to accelerate the simulation speed.

A Design of Experiments Approach to Military Deployment Planning Problem
Uğur Ziya Yıldırım, İhsan Sabuncuoğlu, and Barbaros Tansel (Bilkent University) and Ahmet Balcıoğlu (Turkish Army)

Abstract:
We develop a logistics and transportation simulation that can be used to provide insights into potential outcomes of proposed military deployment plans. More specifically, we model the large-scale real-world military Deployment Planning Problem. It involves planning the movement of military units from their home bases to their final destinations using different transportation assets on a multimodal transportation network. We use an intelligent design of experiments approach to evaluate logistics factors with the greatest impact on the overall achievement of a typical real-world military deployment plan.

C-5 Isochronal Inspection Process Modeling
Alan W. Johnson, Charles Glasscock, Adam Little, Matthew Muha, David O'Malley, and Michael Bennett (Air Force Institute of Technology)

Abstract:
United States Air Mobility Command (AMC) has a limited number of C-5 aircraft, and so opportunities to either preserve or increase aircraft availability are of interest to them. In an attempt to reduce inspection costs and promote inspection scheduling predictability, the Air Force is reducing the number of C-5 Isochronal inspection (ISO) sites from five to three. C-5 ISOs require at least two weeks and involve an exhaustive inspection of the entire aircraft. AMC headquarters staff asked us to model the new ISO process to help them understand how the reduced number of ISO locations will affect inspection timeliness. We used the problem as the class project for a graduate discrete event simulation course at the Air Force Institute of Technology. We review our process and results, and present some insights on conducting simulation research as a class assignment.

Information Fusion in Underwater Sonar Simulation
Yanshen Zhu (University of Central Florida), Haluk Akin (University of Central Florida), Maria T. Bull (Universidad Catolica de la Santisima Concepcion) and Luis Rabelo and Jose Sepulveda (University of Central Florida)

Abstract:
This paper discusses information fusion methodologies, selection of one of these methodologies, and application of these fusion methodologies to underwater sonar simulation. Bayesian Inference and Dempster-Shafer are the two methods that have been studied in detail. In conclusion, the Dempster-Shafer approach was selected as the preferred method. Dempster-Shafer’s main advantage is that it does not need conditional likelihoods. Also, Dempster-Shafer does not have computational complexity problems when multiple hypotheses and multiple conditional dependent events are examined. This method was applied to the multisensor information fusion problem in a simulation which includes a passive sonar, an active sonar, and a radar. The simulation is conducted on a geographical information system.

A Hybrid Approach Based on Multi-Agent Geosimulation and Reinforcement Learning to Solve a UAV Patrolling Problem
Jimmy Perron and Jimmy Hogan (NSim Technology), Bernard Moulin (Laval University) and Jean Berger and Micheline Bélanger (DRDC Valcartier)

Abstract:
In this paper we address a dynamic distributed patrolling problem where a team of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) patrolling moving targets over a large area must coordinate. We propose a hybrid approach combining multi-agent geosimulation and reinforcement learning enabling a group of agents to find near optimal solutions in realistic geo-referenced virtual environments. We present the COLMAS System which implements the proposed approach and show how a set of UAV can automatically find patrolling patterns in a dynamic environment characterized by unknown obstacles and moving targets. We also comment the value of the approach based on limited computational results.

Multi-Objective UAV Mission Planning Using Evolutionary Computation
Gary Byron Lamont and Adam Pohl (Air Force Institute of Technology)

Abstract:
This investigation develops an innovative algorithm for multiple autonomous unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) mission routing. The concept of a UAV Swarm Routing Problem (SRP) as a new combinatorics problem, is developed as a variant of the Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows (VRPTW). Solutions of SRP problem model result in route assignments per vehicle that successfully track to all targets, on time, within distance constraints. A complexity analysis and multi-objective formulation of the VRPTW indicates the necessity of a stochastic solution approach leading to a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. A full problem definition of the SRP as well as a multi-objective formulation parallels that of the VRPTW method. Benchmark problems for the VRPTW are modified in order to create SRP benchmarks. The solutions show the SRP solutions are comparable or better than the same VRPTW solutions, while also representing a more realistic UAV swarm routing solution.

Assignment of Probabilities to Events for Combat Simulation
John Gilmer and Frederick Sullivan (Wilkes University)

Abstract:
Multitrajectory simulation allows explicit management of random events by allowing particular events to be resolved by random draw, by a deterministic choice, or by creating new states to allow following multiple trajectories. The policy for resolution method is under the control of the analyst, and may depend on event type, trajectory probability, or even some metric indicating the trajectory importance. However, taking advantage of the technique for exploring possible outcome spaces requires a probabilistic modeling of events that, in simulations of ground combat, are often treated as deterministic, such as decisionmaking. Even for events such as attrition, which have long been modeled as stochastic, how should the full event outcome set be sampled if one is only to keep two or three samples? This paper explores these issues with the goal of outlining what kinds of data would be needed to fully exploit multitrajectory methods in a combat simulation context.

A Multi Threaded and Resolution Approach to Simulated Futures Evaluation
David R. Pratt, Robert W Franceschini, Robert B Burch, and Robert S. Alexander (SAIC)

Abstract:
As part of the DARPA Deep Green efforts, we developed a multi-threaded and resolution approach to constructing and evaluating simulated futures to address the Blitzkrieg component. By making use of heuristically derived breakpoints in a provided plan, we can construct a series of possible futures that are grouped into what is referred to as the probabilistic fluent graph (PFG). Evaluation of the PFG is done through a multiple resolution and fidelity modeling system that applies computational resources to the areas of highest likelihood. In this paper, we will describe the architecture, processing, and data structures needed to bring this concept to fruition.

A Systems Engineering Process Supporting the Development of Operational Requirements Driven Federations
Andreas Tolk (Old Dominion University), Robert H. Kewley (United States Military Academy) and Thomas G Litwin (Old Dominion University)

Abstract:
This paper proposes a systems engineering process utilizing the conceptual artifacts of the Model Driven Architecture (MDA) describing platform independent views of models to capture operational requirements, to derive essential tasks, and to combine these tasks into scenarios and vignettes with attributed metrics. This model-independent mission description is then used to identify supporting simulation services that implement the identified military means and capabilities to perform the tasks in the given context. Once the services are identified, the necessary simulation middleware to federate the services is identified and the interfaces are configured using the technical artifacts of the MDA describing platform specific views of systems. This systems engineering process provided support for simulation development for the US Army’s Program Executive Office – Soldier.