WSC 2009 Final Abstracts

Agent-Based Modeling for Household Level Hurricane Evacuation
Bo Zhang, Satish Ukkusuri, and Wai Kin (Victor) Chan (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute)

Abstract:
In this paper, we present an agent-based model for hurricane evacuation which captures the interactions among evacuees during the evacuation process. Both normal and greedy household agents are considered. The normal agents simply follow the shortest route toward their destinations regardless of the congestion on each route segment. The greedy agents on the other hand make choices between the shortest route and the least congested route according to a certain probabilistic rule, taking into account the evolving network conditions. In the experiments, we simulate different scenarios on a test network and present the results and analysis. The simulation results indicate that greedy agents can sometimes reduce the individual evacuation times by detouring and avoiding congestions, but the greedy behavior makes the whole evacuation inefficient.

A Post-Disaster Mobility Model for Delay Tolerant Networking
Md Yusuf Sarwar Uddin, David Nicol, Tarek Abdelzaher, and Robin Kravets (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

Abstract:
Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) considers how to provide communication in contexts where it is unreasonable to assume end-to-end connectivity. Network devices exchange buffered messages when they come into communication range; messages may be buffered and carried physically several times before ultimately being received. Service characteristics of a DTN depend intimately on the underlying movement of devices through physical space; correspondingly, an assessment of DTN technology (e.g. routing protocols, message exchange policies, etc.) depends on that same movement. Existing mobility models provided in simulators lack characteristics one expects in post-disaster communication. We propose a mobility model that includes the impact of the disaster on the transportation network, and that models population and relief vehicle movement. We augment the ``Opportunistic Network Environment" (ONE) simulator of DTNs with required extensions and show that characteristics of the DTN are very different using the new model than it is under models that ONE currently provides.

Simulating Distribution of Emergency Supplies for Disaster Response Operations
Young M. Lee, Soumyadip Ghosh, and Ettl Markus (IBM T.J. Watson Research Center)

Abstract:
In the event of disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes and terrorism, emergency relief supplies need be distributed to disaster victims in timely manner to protect the health and lives of the victims. We develop a modeling framework for disaster response where the supply chain of relief supplies and distribution operations are simulated, and analytics for the optimal transportation of relief supplies to various POD (Points of Distribution) are tested. Our simulation model of disaster response includes modeling the supply chain of relief supplies, distribution operations at PODs, dynamics of demand, and progression of disaster. Our analytics optimize the dispatch of relief supplies to PODs and cross-leveling among PODs. Their effectiveness is estimated by the simulation model. The model can evaluate a wide range of disaster scenarios, assess existing disaster response plans and policies, and identify better approaches for government agencies and first responders to prepare for and respond to disasters.

Concept of Operations for a Regional Telemedicine Hub to Improve Medical Emergency Response
Hui Wang (Cayuga Partners, LLC), Wei Xiong and Hupert Nathaniel (Weill Medical College of Cornell University) and Sandrock Christian, Javeed Siddiqui, and Aaron Bair (University of California at Davis Medical Center)

Abstract:
Telemedicine (TM) is a tool that permits medical services to be provided remotely. Applications of telemedicine to disaster response began in the mid-1980s for natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and hurricanes and for “staged” disasters in experiments and exercises. These activities led to the concept of a regional telemedicine hub (TMH) with an extended network of clinical providers, which potentially could alleviate problems associated with surge capacity during disaster response. However, health-related benefits associated with this organizational model for disaster-related telemedicine remain to be quantitatively tested. In this paper, we describe a simulation study used to examine the operation of a regional telemedicine hub during the acute phases of hospital patient management in a hypothetical earthquake scenario. We explore the impact of using telemedicine to provide emergency specialty care to expand surge capacities at both local and regional levels.

Risk Modeling and Simulation of Airport Passenger Departures Process
Pravir K Chawdhry (Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen)

Abstract:
Airport security is a key element of Homeland Security strategy. This paper presents a process based approach to modeling and simulation of airport security. A quantitative measure of process security, called permeability, has been defined. We use the SPT model of passenger departures process to illustrate the methodology. Monte Carlo simulation has been used for the departure process to determine passenger process permeability of large airport hubs in a system of interconnected airports. We show the relative impact of the Registered Traveler scheme on improving the security of the passenger departure process. The proposed approach would allow decision makers (a) to identify weakest links in a security chain; (b) to assess quantitatively the impact of deploying specific security technologies on the overall process security; and (c) to help choose the optimum technical solutions to achieve the security goals for a given process in an operational environment.

A Simulation Model of Port Operations During Crisis Conditions
Tugce G. Martagan, Burak Eksioglu, Sandra D. Eksioglu, and Allen G. Greenwood (Mississippi State University)

Abstract:
We consider the supply chain for containerized items that arrive at a port in the U.S. whose final destination is also in the U.S. Ports are important entities in global supply chains. As such, when a port cannot operate because of a crisis, such as a natural or man-made disaster, it is critical that freight flow is not disrupted. We develop a simulation model that can be used to make effective re-routing decisions so that the time for freight to reach its final destination is not significantly increased in a crisis. The simulation model will evaluate and report the performance of the supply chain under different re-routing strategies. The output can be analyzed to find the best re-routing strategy that minimizes congestion and delays during crisis conditions. The model can also be used by various decision makers such as port managers, ocean carriers, or transportation companies for strategic decision making.

New M&S Challenges Derived From the NATO Research & Technology Organization (RTO) Systems Analysis Studies (SAS-071) Task Group on Analytical Tools for Irregular Warfare
Andreas Tolk (Old Dominion University)

Abstract:
The research conducted recently by NATO's RTO Systems Analysis Studies (SAS-071) Task Group on Analytical Tools for Irregular Warfare (IW) is of direct interest to the M&S community, as it formulates several new challenges that have to be met by the M&S community. IW comprises among others the following categories: insurgency/counter-insurgency, combat-ing terrorism, unconventional warfare, strategic communications, transnational criminal activities, including narco-trafficking, illicit arms dealing, and illegal financial transactions, and more. Many of these domains are either not modeled or modeled as stand-alone solutions. The paper establishes a research agenda for M&S activities in support of IW.

Integration of Psycho-Social Models and Methods in NATO’s Approach to Operations; a Review of NATO Research and Technology Organization (RTO) Systems Analysis Studies (SAS - 074)
Timothy J. Bacon (US Joint Forces Command), Phillip Jones (DSTL), Randall B. Garrett (GD/AIS) and Andreas Tolk (Old Dominion University)

Abstract:
NATO’s Research and Technology Organization (RTO) Systems, Analysis, Studies Task Force (SAS-074) is currently developing a process to increase the utilization of human and social-science based Theories, Models and Methods (TM&Ms) by planners and operational researchers in support of these operations. The paper outlines the approach the group is taking. A two-stage process has been developed which provides guidance to analysts and planners to help them: develop an overview of their operational problem from a range of Psycho-Social (P-S) perspectives; develop appropriate P-S objectives within the planning process; and, provide a knowledge base to promote the appropriate use of P-S TM&Ms throughout the Analysis - Planning – Execution – Assessment cycle. It also reviews the insights gained from other NATO RTO activities, including the recent SAS-071 workshop on Modeling and Simulation (M&S) in Irregular Warfare and highlights the development of a virtual community of interest.

Exploring Effective Methods for Modeling a Comprehensive Approach to Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, and Infrastructure (PMESII) / Human, Cultural, Social, and Behavorial (HSCB) Community of Interest (COI)
Randall B. Garrett (General Dynamics AIS), Andreas Tolk (Old Dominion University) and Timothy J. Bacon (US Joint Forces Command)

Abstract:
The crisis response community recognizes the need for a Modeling and Simulation (M&S) approach that is based on a holistic understanding of the complex forces in society that comprise the political, economic, and socio/cultural environment. Comprehension resulting from accurate modeling of this domain could result in improved decision making and command and control during crisis planning and assessment. The challenge is to build a virtual enterprise of networked area specialists and practitioners that collaborate by tools and technologies to assist organizations with the planning, analysis, preparation, and execution of PMESII activities. Discussed is an approach to establish a virtual Community of Interest (CoI) that both facilitates community interest and networks PMESII people, projects, programs, and tools. Also addressed is how mapping this information to a global visualization tool for shared use by the community can provide available information for both experimentation and real time crisis response.

New Madrid and Wabash Valley Seismic Study: Simulating the Impacts
Edgar C. Portante and Stephen M. Folga (Argonne National Laboratory), Gustav R. Wulfkuhle (Federal Emergency Management Agency) and Brian A. Craig and Leah E. Talaber (Argonne National Laboratory)

Abstract:
This paper summarizes the methodology, simulation tools, and major initial findings made by Argonne National Laboratory on the potential impact of simultaneous, high-intensity New Madrid and Wabash Valley Seismic Events on the natural gas interstate pipelines and their subsequent impacts on the downstream customers, particularly on the states under the purview of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Region V operations. Downstream impacts are ex-pressed in terms of percent reduction in deliveries, population affected, and numbers of commercial and industrial customers shed. Damage functions and fragility curves are employed to identify specific pipelines that could potentially be affected, as well as the probable location(s) of the pipeline breaks and leaks. Effects of emergency remedial measures to mitigate impacts are also simulated. The methodology employed two models: (1) the FEMA-developed HAZUS MH-MR3 and (2) the Ar-gonne-developed NGFast pipeline break simulation tool. The models are described, and their complementary roles are discussed.

Recommended Practices for Homeland Security Modeling and Simulation
Sanjay Jain (The George Washington University) and Charles McLean (National Institute of Standards and Technology)

Abstract:
This paper recommends practices for development and deployment of modeling, simulation, and analysis (MS&A) tools for homeland security applications. The set of recommended practices applicable to any MS&A application includes: software engineering practice/ software reliability, modeling practice, model confidence/ verification, validation and accreditation, standards, interoperability, user friendliness and accessibility, performance, and innovative and unique elements. The recommended practices are discussed with respect to the MS&A application types for U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) that include: analysis and decision support, systems engineering and acquisition, planning and operations, and training. The practices are also discussed with respect to MS&A application domains relevant to DHS.

A Natural Gas Modeling Framework for Conducting Infrastructure Analysis Studies
James A. Kavicky, Mark J. Jusko, Brian A. Craig, Edgar C. Portante, and Stephen M. Folga (Argonne National Laboratory)

Abstract:
Increased emphasis on national critical infrastructure protection has accelerated the need to respond to infrastructure assessment requests in a timely manner with reasonable certainty of system consequences following either natural or deliberate system disruptions. Natural gas supply, transmission, and distribution networks provide an important capability to dependent electric power, industrial, commercial, military, and residential customers. This paper describes the natural gas infrastructure analysis and modeling framework (NGtools) at Argonne National Laboratory that directly supports the analysis of the natural gas transmission network given various system disruptions. Infrastructure analysts, given the task to assess the resiliency of the natural gas infrastructure under various disruption scenarios, efficiently respond with increased certainty to various requests by using the in-house-developed analytical suite of tools within NGtools. Analysts use NGtools to identify critical system components and equipment, assess potential network-wide impacts, and suggest measures to mitigate undesirable system responses.